The US Spot Bitcoin ETF added $1.63 billion last week, bringing its four-week net intake to $3.96 billion, marking nine of the last 12 weeks.
The 12-week rolling thumb is $6.08 billion, and is roughly midway range for 2025, based on fund disclosures and Cryptoslate’s internal trackers built from public flow tables.
Total of the year, net inflows totaled $22.78 billion, which has been $58.444 billion since its inception.
The asset and management proxy is $155.9 billion, but the average weekly traded over the past four weeks is $16.17 billion, an average of $179 billion over the 12 weeks.
When the policy and macro background shifted, the flow was re-added to the quarter turn.
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, further easing market pricing in the fourth quarter, lowering the hurdles for rate-sensitive allocators using ETFs to add exposure.
The first day of the US government shutdown pushed gold to record highs and Dollar Lower. Global product data confirms the turn.
Coinshares recorded consecutive weekly inflows until late September, with Bitcoin winning the majority of tickets, with $1.03 billion entering the digital asset fund weekly and including Bitcoin vehicles, including $790 million by September 29th. The fluidity remains ETF-centric.
Kaiko Research shows that US time has retained greater depth since the launch of ETFs, with ETF net flow explaining only a small share of daily BTC returns, with R² close to 0.32. This is a reminder that derivatives and macros still drive most of the variance.
Q4 is in progress, and simple scenario mathematics frames the path of net flow and how much bitcoin can be absorbed from the circular supply.
The last four weeks mark an annual rate of around $12.9 billion for the quarter, but the 12-week run rate means around $6.6 billion. The outer band is provided by the 2025 extremes.
The Bitcoin price for the illustration is $115,000, with $1 billion in a four-week window map of around 8,700 BTC net purchases, about 311 BTC per day.
Post-harving issue is nearly 450 BTC per day and about 41,400 BTC over a 92-day quarter. The table below converts these rates to Q4 sums.
| scenario | prediction | Q4 Net Flow (USD) | BTC was absorbed for $115,000 | vs. Minor Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull, Retouch 2025 Best 12-week pace | +$17.1 billion per 12 weeks | ~+$ 18.5b | ~161,000 BTC | Approximately 3.9 x quarterly published |
| Base maintains pace for the past 4 weeks | +$396 million per 4 weeks | ~+$ 12.9b | ~112,000 BTC | ~2.7× |
| Medium, return to 12-week average | +$608 million per 12 weeks | ~+$66b Billion | ~57,000 BTC | ~1.4× |
| Bear, 2025 Worst 12 Week Run | – $456 million per 12 weeks | ~- $49b | ~43,000 BTC | ≈1.0x |
Under BasePath, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF will abolish new issuances of approximately 112,000 BTC or approximately 2.7 times from the float from the quarter. This magnitude tends to tighten spot availability and continue to support the foundation when risk appetite is stable.
The August CPI was printed 2.9% year-on-year, helping to strengthen the excavation and mitigation narrative that supports allocator demand.
Seasonality adds a layer of action, and investors point to the historical strength of the October code.
The 12-week net flow total indicates that flow has declined towards the average after equal to the 2024 peak in mid-July. Therefore, recent weekly influx exceeds the current average trend, indicating the possibility of a reversal in past patterns.
However, if the historical trend continues, net outflows could reach around $500 million a week by December.
The microstructure continues to evolve around ETF activity.
Kaiko’s work shows that more transactions are clustered around the US creation and redemption window, and their time liquidity indicates that the weight of discoveries is increasing than before the ETF launch.
The correlation framework, in which ETF Flow explains only a portion of the daily returns, also means macro releases, funding, and positioning on CME issues in daily paths. Traders looking at futures are monitoring future interests and volume. CME metrics can be used to traverse risk appetite along with fund flow, and Kaiko’s dashboard provides an integrated view of depth and spread across the venue.
The rotation remains in the subplot. The US Spot Ethereum ETF has been steadily pulling out allocations since July, assembled ETH this week as a relative margin holder. Reuters reported that Citi has de-targeted ETH for the end of the year and trimmed BTC based on perceived changes in investor flow.
For now, the US remains a marginal buyer in this cycle, and Coinshares’ late September update showed that Bitcoin still controls weekly tickets across the world’s ETP.
Short-term risks are concentrated on data and policy timing.
Government shutdowns can delay or distort early macroprints including non-farm payroll and CPI, and amplify narrative fluctuations when investor anchors are low.
This makes the ETF tape an even more visible thermometer for risk emotion when Q4 begins.
If the run rate for the last four weeks is retained, quarterly net intake will track nearly $13 billion by the end of the year.
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