Less than 72 hours have passed since the ceasefire, but its durability is already looking questionable.
According to the Kobeisi Letter, US President Donald Trump recently said that Iran is not fully complying with ceasefire terms.
Against this volatile backdrop, it’s still a stretch to call this a sustained bull market just because sentiment has turned risk-on.
Ethereum ($ETH) reflects this uncertainty in real time. After rising 6.28% on April 7th, $ETH After that, it returned to around 2.2%.
While the decline may seem modest on the surface, it still suggests a high level of weakening follow-through bidding. Instead, positioning data continues to show signs of distribution.
According to Lookonchain: $ETH A swing trader recently sold off his remaining $1,000. $ETH The position has committed a loss of $1.44 million.
In fact, since January 27, 2025, the trader has completed four swing trades (three of which were losses), with a total drawdown of approximately $2.45 million.
Add to this the recent $8.3 million worth of $ETH It is reportedly being sold by the Ethereum Foundation, and the bearish narrative is starting to build a bit more.
In this context, Ethereum’s 63% increase in positive funding rate (from the previous 0.0024 level) starts to look like a relatively forced positioning move.
The logic is simple. That’s because macro volatility, technical weakness, and distribution signs all point towards increased long exposure.
In such settings, prices usually do not remain balanced for long periods of time. Instead, it will either trigger a long squeeze if support fails, or quickly reverse itself if buyers step in and absorb supply.
The key question is whether Ethereum bulls can step in here and turn it into a bear trap.
Ethereum long bias increases as stake supply begins to roll over
Leverage in volatile situations is rarely just speculation. Rather, they tend to be driven by beliefs.
Ethereum’s PERP market is starting to show such changes. Despite the uncertain macro environment, derivatives signals are improving.
Notably, the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio on Binance is back above 1, with a monthly average of around 1.016, remaining in positive territory for several days in a row.
For context, a reading above 1 means that the taker buy volume is greater than the taker sell volume, indicating sustained aggressive buying in purps with leveraged long-leaning positioning.
83,200 when combined with Grayscale Staking $ETHthis starts to look like a structural flow change rather than random.
However, the photo changes when you zoom out. Despite the influx of staking, Ethereum’s total staking supply decreased significantly for the first time in about a month, to 570,000. $ETH With the end of staking, the staking ratio has fallen to 31.4% from its recent high of 31.9%.
Essentially, the market is showing clear divergence.
For context, lower staking levels, along with the potential for profit taking and risk aversion by validators, suggest a reduction in convictions over time. Combined with the recent capitulation, this indicates that supply will return to the market without strong bids stepping in to absorb it.
Against this background, a long position with leverage looks like a speculative play.
With Ethereum’s current setup leaning from neutral to bearish, the recent pullback looks more like a circulation-driven move than a bear trap, with pressure now moving back toward the $2,000 support level.
Final summary
- Weak macro stability and mixed on-chain signals lead to inconsistent setups.
- Leveraging long-term accumulation against softer demand increases the risk of a move towards the $2,000 support.
