Bitcoin is trading in the low $60,000 range, and the ledger shows that almost half of its holders are in losses.
The supply rate on Newhedge’s profit gauge shows that 51.78% of the coin is in profit at around $63,275 BTC, meaning a loss of 9.64 million BTC against a gain of roughly 10.35 million BTC.
However, data provided to the profit tracker by analyst Darden BTC this weekend shows an even starker number: when Bitcoin still held $68,000, 44.2% of coins were profitable, which is in the 0th percentile.
That number has a certain weight. This compresses long-standing market habits into a single percentage and frames the current scenario as a balance sheet problem.
Darden’s memo ties this number to previous yield thresholds. In December 2018, the profit was $3,359 and the profit was 43%. The coronavirus crash was 48% at $4,959. And the FTX washout was 49% at $15,778.
Then he added:
“Bitcoin was near $68,000, more people underwater than when it was trading near $3,000.”
The intuitive shape of the claim is simple.
Complete cycles are bought high and unwinding appears as overhead supply. Every rally has sellers inside waiting to get back to breakeven.
This methodology makes this the worst cycle for Bitcoin investors since before 2016, when this particular tracker was launched. DurdenBTC’s methodology follows that of BGeometrics, which has since dropped to 41.2%.
To explain the difference in percentages, understand the definition properly to emphasize the cohort you are measuring.
For example, CryptoQuant’s supply to profit dashboard currently shows 51.6%.
This substantially different situation illustrates the split between dormant coins and coins that actually move through the market’s plumbing.
CryptoQuant’s proprietary framework helps explain how the gap exists. It explains that it is a cost base of “active circulating supply” that excludes coins that have been inactive for long periods of time, and that it focuses the lens on investors on new receipts and new pain.
Here the story ceases to be a paradox and begins to become a map. The long tail of old coins may be profitable on paper, but a live float still feels like a room full of buyers trapped on top of the physical.
DurdenBTC’s low rating is because, similar to BGeometrics, he effectively evaluates the profitability of the coin. The person in charge actually changed during this cycle., Because we tag supply to the market price with each coin’s last move on the chain, the score is currently dominated by UTXO minted on a 2021-2024 cost basis above spot.
In contrast, a dashboard like CryptoQuant sums up the profitability across a full live UTXO set in a value-weighted manner. This allows large-scale, long-dormant outputs on an ultra-low cost basis to retain and increase their share of the “profit” supply.
In other words, Darden’s lens is tilted toward stirred float and recent receipts. The broader UTXO thumb tracker still retains the cushioning effect of older coins that did not have to be “repriced” on-chain.
Why this matters for Bitcoin’s next move
Furthermore, the realized price for short-term holders is close to $91,000, while the realized price for long-term holders is close to $38,000. The total realized price is approximately $54,000.
BTC is currently sitting around $63,275, which is about -48.766% from its all-time high.
This is deep enough to loosen leverage, but shallow enough to keep the “this is still expensive” instinct alive in the broader public narrative.
The emotional mismatch arises from the combination of high nominal stickers and low returns.
It’s the kind of setup that creates a quiet surrender. It happens in stages, with forced sales, punctures in small wallets, and waiting for liquidity to return to large wallets.
Corridor where the market continues trading again
Thanks to Glassnode’s latest framework, the hallway is slightly lower. The true market average is around $79,000 and the realized price is around $54,000.
According to Glassnode’s Week On-chain, they are structured as an active cost base and a structural marker of past re-engagement behavior.
Think of it as a hallway made of receipts. The top band shows where active buyers come to life as a group.
The lower band shows that long-term capital tends to intervene when the tape appears to be broken.
Within that aisle, Glassnode previously highlighted a dense URPD cluster priced from $66,900 to $70,600.
At the $63,000 spot, that cluster is less of a place to “settle” and more of an initial overhead ledge that a rebound must pick up before a recovery story can take hold.
More broadly, Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain describes a dense demand zone between $60,000 and $69,000 that absorbs selling pressure, and the broader cluster is now important as this is the range that the market is really relying on.
This is important to the profitability collapse story because the first job of any recovery is mechanical.
Prices need to trade through a dense cost-based zone, and they need to trade in enough volume that sellers are absorbed rather than rewarded for waiting.
The ledger already shows stress as a cash flow fact. Glassnode reports that the 7-day SMA had realized losses of approximately over $1.26 billion per day, and the sharp selling window spiked over $2.4 billion per day.
This is what surrender looks like when measured in transactions rather than emotions.
At the same time, front-end implied volatility repriced toward around 70%, sharpening the downside skew.
Taken together, this is like the market paying for short-term protection and treating discontinuities as a normal operating condition.
This volume level provides a clear way to describe range using a simple implicit cone.
Approximately $63,300 BTC (annualized IV value of 70%) maps to approximately ±9.7% (approximately $57,100 to $69,400) in one week and approximately ±20.1% (approximately $50,600 to $76,000) in one month.
This is a prediction of turbulence and a reminder that even if the story slows down, the market wheels are still turning at high speed.
Flow, Overhead Supply, and Flashing Bid
The collapse in profitability is significant when it encounters a flow regime, and in the past few weeks it looks like a regime that has lost some of its stable demand.
Glassnode explains that allocator demand has softened and spot volumes remain structurally weak, turning a bailout rally into a corrective move that struggles towards a trend reversal.
ETF tape helps you adjust for frames that change from day to day.
Billions of dollars have flowed out of ETFs since October’s all-time high, and this year there have been coin outflows and occasional inflows for the majority of trading days.
Stablecoins act as a wrapper around the market, adding a second flow lens as they hold value on-chain while investors choose when to take exposure.
This month, firememecoins reported more than $4 billion in net stablecoin withdrawals from exchanges, including approximately $3.1 billion from Binance.
This followed the October 2025 period, when net inflows averaged approximately $9.7 billion per month.
At the same time, it confirms the picture of capital retreating from immediate deployment and shifting to a more defensive posture.
Mining adds a third pressure point. Because miners have real-world cost curves and finances that can make them stressed tape sellers.
Hashrate Index estimates the USD hash price at approximately $34.05 per PH per day, and explained that the futures market suggests a six-month average of approximately $28.73.
This is a tough operating environment and could lead to forced sales if prices fall below key demand groups and financing remains expensive.
Providing overhead binds these threads.
firememecoins’s supply guide from earlier this month pegged the overhead supply at around $93,000 to $110,000, warning that the cost basis for short-term holders was close to $98,300.
These levels act like taped seams on market plumbing, holding pressure until the system has passed enough to seal the leak.
In a regime of compressed profitability, these seams determine where breakeven selling appears.
It also explains why the gathering feels heavy even when the headlines are upbeat.
Macro context, external weather seeping into the pipe
Cryptocurrencies trade within global risk budgets, and recent macro stress has manifested itself in normal cross-market conditions.
The US customs law headlines coincided with moves described as a decline in the US dollar, a rise in gold, and a decline in Bitcoin.
This applies to patterns of liquidity sensitivity during stress events.
On interest rates, the Bank of England held the rate at 3.75% in a 5-4 vote and said the bank rate “could be cut further” depending on inflation.
This is a moderation bias combined with ongoing uncertainty.
Interest rate expectations in the United States are also at about the same level.
BlackRock’s iShares outlook explained the change to around 3% from the expected 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, pointing to leadership uncertainty as part of the explanation.
Morgan Stanley Research announced an additional 25 basis point cut, with a final range of 3.0% to 3.25%.
This is combined with the expectation that tariffs will temporarily boost inflation, with the unemployment rate peaking at around 4.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
This macro layer is important in practical terms to the profit supply story.
While easing expectations could support a recovery, the on-chain landscape remains dependent on crypto-native liquidity, ETF flows, stablecoin deployments, and spot demand.
These are the conduits that bring new risk appetite into the market’s actual order book.
Scenarios configured as triggers and corridors
Glassnode offers three important things here. The market relies on a demand zone of $60,000 to $69,000, a high-density URPD shelf of $66,900 to $70,600, and a true market average near $79,000 with a realized price near $54,900 as a deeper structural floor.
The base case looks like absorption and range.
Prices are moving within the $60,000 to $69,000 demand range, realized losses are down from their recent pace, ETF flow days are nearing flat, and volatility is tapering off from high levels.
In that world, the market will “decide” on whether it can reclaim the $66,900 to $70,600 shelf and maintain it as a livable level rather than a core.
In the case of a decline, it looks like a deeper surrender.
Prices gain momentum and lose the lower end of the demand zone, accelerating liquidations, tightening miners’ economic conditions and promoting bond sales, causing the tape to fall towards a realized price around $54,900.
It is a historical zone where long-term capital tends to re-engage and markets often try to rebuild credibility after a break.
If it goes up, it looks like a hard rebound to overhead supply.
Prices have returned to the true market average around $79,000, the market is testing higher cost-based bands, and the next big seam is in the $93,000 to $110,000 overhead area.
The short-term holder cost basis of around $98,300 is at a level where breakeven selling could occur quickly if liquidity remains spotty.
In all three, the collapse of profitability acts as a constraint on behavior.
Underwater holders tend to sell more when they are aired, which means you have to do extra work with each rally and absorb inventory from recent buyers who ask for their receipts back.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
