Tomorrow, March 12, 2025, in the world of finance, there could be a gesture of “input pivotal” or factors that have a critical impact on the economy and digital assets. A single fact revealed in the Washington office could move the foundations of the global economy.
This is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) that corresponds to February. Indicators to observe with magnifying glass to predict the next step in the Federal Reserve (FED), adjust your strategy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue a CPI at 8:30am on Washington Time. This index Measure how the prices of goods and services change in the US economy It serves as the main inflation thermometer.
It is estimated that Inflation rate for the year falls to 2.9% compared to the previous month’s 3%as seen in the next image.
On the other hand, the basic traditional inflation That’s 0.3%, a slowdown against 0.4% and 0.5% before January.
The Fed maintains interest rates unchanged at 4.5% per year after cutting three times last year. The next decision regarding the rate is March 19th.
Expectations and various scenarios
Market behavior does not always follow predictable scripts. If economic data matches expectations, Investors usually respond to behaviors that lead to moderate increases and avoid sudden fluctuations.
However, a higher than expected IPC could halt your hopes of an immediate recovery. In that case, interest rates will remain high, preventing investments in risky assets such as Bitcoin and stocks.
Meanwhile, IPCs under estimates open the door to reduce rate forecasts. Historically, This has driven markets and cryptocurrencies, increased liquidity and reduced the appeal of bonds.
The question is whether the Fed will act only under the CPI, under Jerome Powell’s direction, or will it act by President Trump’s government? In any case, the Trump administration has shown its intention to cut interest rates.
Bitcoin Walking the Tightrobe
In this regard, the cryptocurrency market remains unstoppable. Bitmex’s Co-Founder Arthur Hayes estimates that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000. 36% revision from the past maximum of $109,300 reached in January.
For now, as you can see in the graph, digital currency is quoted at $82,500 after falling to $76,000 yesterday.
“This is very common in an upward market,” says Hayes. However, it adds nuance. To meet this prediction, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes must enter “free fall”followed by a wave of financial flexibility from the Federal Reserve, China’s popular banks, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
Hayes also highlights the unique nature of Bitcoin. “It’s negotiated 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and anyone with the internet can participate. It can’t be printed,” he explains.
Unlike action, They rely on rescue and political ties in times of crisis, and Bitcoin operates in a “really free” market. According to him, this feature positions it as an active resilience to traditional fiscal turbulence.
Dangerous strategies on the horizon
The equation adds a theory raised by market analyst Daniel Muvdi. In an article published on X, Muvdi proposes it Trump can adjust “self-induced recession” as an economic manipulation.
“If the economy is slow enough, the Fed will be forced to lower rates faster and encourage refinancing of public debt at a lower cost,” he writes.
This means “short-term pain” in the market, A successful run could lead to an explosive rally towards the end of 2025combining low rates, liquidity and aggressive commercial policies.
Looking closely, someday
Tomorrow is not another day on the financial calendar. February IPC Publications could mark the US economy in the short and medium termas Crypto reported, it crosses at the doors of complicated moments and recession.
Operators adjust their positions, analysts sharpen their predictions, and the world waits. If you’re right, Bitcoin can turn the background for $70,000 before rebound.
If Muvdi is correct, the market could be on the edge of a strategic turn. The truth is that within 24 hours, the numbers on screen define the decisions of people betting on the millions of dollars courses and futures.
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