Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $94,300 this week, testing pivotal price levels as short-term holders begin to realize strengthening profits and institutional profits, creating moments of “decision point” in the market.
According to a GlassNode report on April 24, the price hike for BTC was now $92,900, and was instantly destroyed beyond the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base.
This threshold reflects the average buyer acquisition price of recent buyers, and historically serves as a key pivot for the emotional shift between bear correction and bull recovery. A sustained position above the STH cost base often indicates the onset of a wider upward movement.
The report noted that this structure reflects previous phases such as mid-2024. At this stage, Bitcoin temporarily recovered, exceeding the reverse threshold.
The recent rally increased the supply rate of profit metrics to 87.3% compared to 82.7% when Bitcoin last traded in this price range. This indicates that nearly 5% of total supply has been trading at low prices since March.
This upward movement in the profitability of a circular coin is usually a precursor to more euphoric states when the metric stabilizes stability above 90%. However, Bitcoin remains at the inflection point, as the STH cost base has not yet been fully recovered.
Short-term holders regain profitability
A key development in the current market structure is the return of STH supply profit/loss rate to neutral territory at 1.0. This ratio represents the balance between recent purchases in profit and loss purchases.
Historically, this level has served as a ceiling in the bear market, and recapturing it often precedes trend reversal. STH used the Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which compares the coin’s realized sales price with a cost base, but it broke above 1.0 for the first time since February.
This shows that recent buyers are recognising profits again and are generally related to healthy price trends. Whether this catalyzes a wider move or not depends on how the market handles the next wave of profits it has achieved.
Realized profits have accelerated sharply, and now averaged $139.9 million per hour, up 17% from the recent $120 million baseline.
According to GlassNode, the ability to withstand this amount of profit realization without a sharp market reversal determines whether current movements can establish a more durable uptrend.
This price action could be similar to previous short-lived rallies when profits are raised and sales pressures are renewed. A durable breakout that exceeds the STH cost base with sustained investor profitability remains a prerequisite for verifying bullish continuity.
Institutional flows and ETF demand
Meanwhile, institutional demand appears to be re-engaged. The US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFS) recorded a daily net inflow of $1.54 billion at a recent rally. The movement reaffirms Bitcoin’s position as a major beneficiary of institutional capital in the current cycle.
A comparative analysis of ETF flows reveals that Ethereum (ETH) does not see comparable increases in demand. Bitcoin ETF recorded an influx of over 10% of its spot volume during its recent rise, but Ethereum ETF flow remains below 1%. The branching suggests a stronger appetite for Bitcoin among institutional investors compared to other digital assets.
Recent technical and behavioral indicators for Bitcoin portray the market at a decision point, with short-term profitability recovering, institutional demand improving.
The next directional phase is defined by whether this can be maintained under increased pressure to earn profits and against skeptical derivatives markets.
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