Ki YoungJu, founder and CEO of the analytics company On-chain Cryptoquant is no longer convinced of the sharp projections he made at the price of Bitcoin (BTC) six weeks ago. At the time, he warned that the currency al-Sista cycle had ended, but the theory questioned the rise to US$95,000 this week, the largest in two months.
After saying the bullish cycle is over, Bitcoin has fallen 10%, but now it’s 10% above where he was when he made that prediction. Therefore, he has not completely discarded his hypothesis yet, but he has revealed it He is reassessing his position.
“If you exceed 100,000 US dollars, I’m happy to admit my mistake,” he said. With the price rebound he had, he explained that he would pay attention to the data for several more weeks to see if it was a change in actual trends regarding what he had seen before.
His approach “has focused on long-term supply and demand using data, but he highlighted that. On-chain”, and I also admit that This type of analysis faces limitations In the context of “the market responds to each Trump’s comments.”
The recent impulse of Bitcoin has been motivated by a suspension of US import duties, advances in commercial negotiations between the nations, and President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed to help institutions lower interest rates. This was after the escalation of the commercial war.
According to the founder of Cryptoquant, in these situations, “short-term price actions are much more dominated by events, preventing analysis on cyclical indicators. On-chain”.
Furthermore, he showed that even within the community, metrics are studied. On-chain,The same data has different interpretations. In this sense, the observation is not a complete conclusion, but suggests that there is a bias that complicates price predictions.
Taking these factors into consideration, Keep the possibility that Bitcoin will follow this year’s upward trend open. “If Bitcoin reaches a new historic maximum before the fourth quarter, we are ready to rule out cycle theory,” he said.
He added that markets without a clear cycle can be very different from those they have experienced before. “In that case, the optimists were right. They’re just upwards,” he reached the top.
“The upward cycle of bitcoin is over,” Ju said a month ago.
A new statement by the creator of Cryptoquant comes after repeated bearish predictions on Bitcoin at the beginning of AprilIt will be given in mid-March. “The upward cycle of Bitcoin is over,” he repeated at that point.
His theory is primarily based on important concepts of data. On-chain:Bitcoin capital letters. This metric is the sum of all BTC coins in circulation and is calculated according to the price that was last moved in the chain. Unlike simple capitalization measured at current market prices.
At that time, I explained about the experts. The result of that metric is usually considered the total capital that entered the Bitcoin market.. Therefore, analysis is important.
He showed that if the capital implemented while market capitalization is growing, even small amounts of new capital are driving upward prices amid low sales pressure. It’s a bullish sign, but it’s not what it was giving.
“If capitalization has grown but market capitalization stagnates or decreases, that means capital is in it, but the price is not uploaded, a classic bear signal,” he explained. As he made clear, such a scenario shows that there are too many vendors whose purchases prevent price promotion.
Since the data at the time point pointed to the latter, I looked at the bear market that stood. “Selling pressures can always be reduced, but historically, short-term rebounds seem unlikely as actual return takes at least six months,” he said in such a scenario.
But today’s situation is different. In the midst of geopolitical and macroeconomic changes, with Bitcoin rebound, Dynamics of Capitals implemented indicate bull marketas shown in the following graph.
So, the market is still on impulse, but the founder of Cryptoquant says he leaves behind a bearish paper. As he concluded, “If you exceed 100,000 US dollars, I will be happy to admit my mistake.”
It was 10% under the record playing at 109,000 USD three months ago, along with a rise of USD 95,000. And later it went down slightly, but still maintained above USD 92,000. This shows strength in the market after falling to a minimum of 76,000 US$ in four months three weeks ago.
(tagstotranslate) Analysis and research
