Key takeout:
SOL/ETH is broken below the rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential 40% reduction.
Solana’s Memecoin revenues have collapsed since April, weakening its core value proposition.
Standard Chartered warns that Solana could suffer a slower performance as Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem becomes more competitive.
Solana (Sol)’s multi-year outperformance against Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), lost technical breakdown, weakened Onchain activity, and then pointed to a potentially rapid decline in SOL/ETH pairs.
Sol enters the rising wedge failure stage
As of May 29, the Sol/ETH pair confirmed a collapse from its high-moon upward wedge patterns.
Technically, rising wedge failures usually result in a drop equal to the maximum height of the pattern.
For SOL/ETH, this projected the negative side target for July, near 0.038 ETH, representing a 40% decrease from the current level.
The 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, red wave) around 0.0628 ETH provides interim support. A decisive weekly ending below this level could confirm a bearish continuation towards the 0.038 ETH target.
Bounce, on the other hand, allows Sol to regain a lower trendline in the wedge as support, potentially slowing down breakdown scenarios. Breaks above the top trend line of the wedge can completely disable the 40% crash setup.
Cooling Memecoin Frenzy suggests Sol/ETH crash
The SOL/ETH breakdown coincides with a visible decline in Memecoin-driven activity in Solana.
The key indicator is Pump.Fun, the largest memocoin launch platform on the network. This indicates that daily rate revenues will drop sharply from early April.
According to Dune Analytics, daily rates peaked in the first quarter of 2025, but have since dropped to annual lows, indicating that they have reduced speculative activity on the chain.
The platform was a major contributor to Solana’s revenue growth, particularly between December 2024 and March 2025.
During this period, the total cumulative cost exceeded 3 million SOL as retailers flooded the network to launch and trade meme tokens. These metrics have been crashing ever since, weakening one of Solana’s main value drivers.
The May 27 report from Standard Chartered further strengthens the negative side story. The bank warned that if it cannot diversify beyond the memokine that currently controls trading activities, Solana could be below performance.
Standard Chartered said Ethereum has achieved its position in its scalable Layer 2 solutions that provide comparable pricing and deeper infrastructure for real-world applications.
Related: Ethereum flashes “AltSeason” signal as ETH price eye $4.1K
Chartist Alex Clay claims that the so-called “Ethereum Out Performance Season” has already arrived, repeating his confidence in the rising wedge breakdown on the Sol/ETH chart.
