Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading for a week in a row, between $100,000 and $110,500, as small investors traded the buyer’s whale. Bitfinex Alpha reported July 7th.
The report noted that BTC spent most of previous July within the 10% channel, closing at a January high of $109,590, with the Short Term Holder Realised Price (STH-RP) stuck on the floor near $99,474.
Despite touching on the $98,220 low last week by dropping shortly under the STH-RP, Bitcoin rebounded to the cap after intervening near the six-digit mark.
The report characterized the zone as a short-term equilibrium. Unrealized profits remain large However, it is below the level that has facilitated heavier distribution in previous recording attempts.
That combination of lighter profits and muted breakout momentum shows that the market is waiting for the catalyst to break out of range.
STH-RP continues to drift higher as new participants, including fund locators trading on the exchange, add coins. The report compared 2024 and 2024 when the influx of exchange sales funds (ETFs) that repeatedly defended STH-RPs while climbing, were repeatedly defended at previous peaks.
The report says that current low price metrics will strengthen as structural floors for the range. Price actions above this level suggest an upward bias until changes in macroeconomic data or liquidity break the deadlock.
Positioning shifts to smaller holders
Derivative traders show fewer convictions at the upper limit. The report flagged a $1.8 billion (5%) drop in total interest on July 4, wiping off two-day profits and explaining the closure that futures accounts closed rather than chasing higher prints.
On-chain cohort data support the distribution. Since June 30th, the wallet, which has held 1,000-10,000 BTC, has dropped around 14,000 BTC, while the short-term holders have added around 382,000 BTC to the same window.
The report noted that supply transfers reflect grooming exposures in medium-sized whales as newcomers from retail and institutions step around spot dips. He also said that A replay of the late cycle handoffs seen at previous meetings.
A seasoned wallet will lose weight amidst uncertainty, but stable inflows from ETFs, balance sheet allocations, and small buyers will offset the outflow and keep price compression in order.
In this scenario, the report warned that reliance on fresh entrants would amplify their sensitivity to future volatility, as these holders lack historical fixtures above $100,000.
The report also observed that multiple failures weaken short-term momentum after clearing $110,500. Each rejection is consistent with futures clearing waves and reduced open interest, indicating limited follow-through intensity.
Still, the Bulls maintained structural control by defending the STH-RP and preventing sustained closures beneath it. The report enclosed the standoffs as a “balanced market,” with neither side owning enough leverage to force a decisive break. Macro drivers such as rate expectations change, liquidity shifts, and ETF flow spikes may determine direction upon arrival.
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