According to Matthew Dixon, the Fed is expected to remain stable at 4.25%-4.50% on July 19, with a 96.9% chance of no change.
While stable fees could benefit the crypto market, political pressure from President Trump has added tension ahead of the 2026 election cycle.
The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 19, 2025, with all eyes set forth at the Central Bank’s decision. Veteran trader Matthew Dixon has made a sensational claim against X, saying there is a 96.9% chance that the Fed will not change between 4.25% and 4.50% and there is a 96.9% chance that the Fed will not change, and the chances of an interest rate hike will be zero.
Dixon also said it was a small 3.1% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but he emphasized that the Fed’s current stance is firmly pending. His forecasts are consistent with broader market sentiment, suggesting that central banks are happy to observe further economic data before they cause policy changes.
#FED is expected to maintain a stable fee
96.9% probability FRB keeps the target rate between 4.25% and 4.50%
3.1% chance that the rate will be reduced from 4.00% to 4.25%
0% rate hiking probability1. No surprises expected
The market is almost fully priced for a suspension. That is, pic.twitter.com/6zlpiwe3sk– Matthew Dixon – Veteran Financial Trader (@MDTRADE) July 16, 2025
The June FOMC meeting shows a shift towards a decline in Fed sentiment
The previous FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025 ended with the Fed stabilizing its benchmark rate. Interestingly, the Fed’s dot plot continued to inform two cuts later in the year, but in 2025 there were no further cuts.
The final actual interest rate cut was on December 18, 2024, when the Fed lowered 25 basis points. This was the third cut in the series that began when the Fed ran a 50 bps surprise cut in September 2024, followed by an additional 25 bps cut in November.
Economic data suggests there is no urgency for the Fed’s actions
At the heart of this decision is inflation trends. After starting the year at 3%, US inflation steadily fell to a low of 2.3% in April, then returned to 2.7% in June. This suggests that while inflation is mitigated, it is still not critically controlled.
The unemployment rate in the US is relatively stable. It rose from 4% in January to 4.1% in February, hovering at around 4.2% until May before returning to 4.1% in June. This level shows cooling, but rather than collapse, it’s a job market and is patient with the Fed’s room.
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Trump targets Chairman Powell in the fight over interest rates
Beyond economic indicators, the Fed is building political heat. President Donald Trump repeatedly criticised Speaker Jerome Powell, urging him to cut the rate aggressively 1% To stimulate growth and reduce government borrowing costs. However, Powell is standing firmly, and the Fed isCrypto Markets welcome rate stability, says Matthew Dixon
Matthew Dixon believes the suspension of interest rate hikes is a bit bullish for risk-on assets, including crypto. There is no surprise from the Fed, so the market may be priced with a stable policy stance.
Historically, stable or lower interest rates support Bitcoin and altcoin. The crypto market tends to respond sharply to unexpected Fed pivots, but in this case, the outlook has remained calm for now, at least for now. Inflation is easy to manage, employment is stable, and the Fed seems to be suspended and comfortable. Political tensions continue to boil down, but Powell’s team seems unlikely to act under pressure.
