Bitcoin prices can see significant benefits in 2026, backing the traditional four-year market cycle, according to Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer.
The forecast is because other analysts are split on whether Bitcoin (BTC) is out of its historical pattern or whether it will follow the half-traditional cycle and peak in the coming months.
Bitcoin may be in “a few years and quite a few years,” says Hougan.
“I think 2026 is the New Year,” Hoogan said on X-Video on Friday. “I think we’re widely a few years ago,” Hogan added.
Hougan said half of the four-year cycle is “dead” for several reasons, including half-year half-years becoming “half important” every four years and the interest rate cycle is crypto-positive. Since April, US President Donald Trump has publicly put pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, a potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
Hougan also said the possibility of a significant price pullback has declined as the industry becomes more clear on regulations. “Improved regulations and institutionalizing spatial systems will attenuate the risk of explosion,” says Hougan.
He said that given the ongoing regulatory process and the early stages of institutional adoption, Bitcoin is likely to be on the rise in this cycle than historical trends suggest.
“The long-term pro-cryptic forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces as long as they exist, and 2026 will be a good year. ”
Hougan said the most important “circulating style risk” for Bitcoin is the rise of Bitcoin finance companies. “The bears are watching and it’s important,” Hogan said.
Bitcoin was trading at $118,169 at the time of publication, up 10.17% over the past 30 days. sauce: Nansen
Asset Manager Vanek has recently warned that he is accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new shares and assuming debts, reflecting the same concerns.
Vanek said these companies could grow excessively if Bitcoin prices drop sharply.
Bitcoin is likely to see a “stable, sustained boom”
However, Hougan predicted that Bitcoin price rallies would be stable rather than aggressive in the short term. “I think it’s a more “sustainable and stable boom” than a supercycle,” he said.
“I could be wrong and I’m sure there’s a lot of volatility,” he added.
It comes just days after Ki Young Ju, the encrypted CEO, said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory is “dead.”
“My predictions were based on that. I buy when whales accumulate and sell when retail participates. But that pattern is no longer retained,” Ju said.
“In the last cycle, the whales were sold to retailers. This time, the old whales are sold to new long-term whales. The institutional adoption is bigger than I thought,” Ju added.
But not everyone is saying that the pattern has changed. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that Bitcoin only has a few months left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern since 2020.
Rekt explained that if Bitcoin cycles follow the 2020 pattern, the market is likely to peak in October, 550 days after Bitcoin has been in half in April 2024.
