- BTC spot demand is strengthened by densely accumulated signals as durable support.
- Coinbase and Binance Flows suggest a fluidity shift that drives upward momentum.
- Bitcoin will need to clear the $113,650 resistance to confirm a breakout or risk a $10,000 retest.
The spot market for Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of a potential recovery supported by chain data, exchange flows, and technical signals pointing to strengthening buyer convictions.
Analysts suggest that the latest development could set the stage for a bullish breakout, but remain cautious given September’s historically weak seasonality.
On-chain data highlights buyer convictions
Data from GlassNode reveals that Bitcoin’s cost-based distribution (CBD) is significantly divergent from ether (ETH).
CBD, which tracks where a substantial supply accumulates or is distributed, shows that Bitcoin spot activity is particularly dense compared to ETH.
Transactions are gathering firmly around recent price levels. This indicates that buyers are accumulating after being convicted.
Historically, such dense clustering in Bitcoin has provided more durable support than future-driven momentum.
This suggests that the current market structure is more resilient and spot demand forms the basis for potential benefits.
Complementing this trend, long-term holders (LTH) spending has accelerated modestly in recent weeks.
The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) shows that it will gradually rise and earn profits.
However, activity is within the norm of the cycle, far below the peaks seen in October and November 2024, meaning sales are measured rather than aggressive.
Exchange flow indicates changes in fluidity
Exchange flow also strengthens the recovery narrative.
The encrypted Quick Take highlighted that Coinbase recorded consistent net inflow spikes between August 25th and 31st following the 30-day period of SMA Netflow reaching its lowest level since early 2023.
Historically, sharp reversals from the multi-year trough often indicate changes in the liquidity regime from restructuring of settlements or increased readiness for higher activity.
At the same time, Binance rose to its highest level since July 2024, peaking on July 25th and August 25th.
These levels were previously consistent with the re-accumulation phase prior to the new local high.
Simultaneous troughs at the Coinbase and Binance peaks suggest meaningful spare redistributions and could lay the basis for upward momentum of BTC.
Focused technical breakout levels
Price action further supports your recovery potential.
Bitcoin immersed in $107,300 on Monday, working closely with short-term realised prices before rebounding sharply.
By Tuesday’s New York trading session, BTC had broken more than Monday’s $109,900 high, showing its latest resilience.
In short time frames such as 15-minute charts and 1-hour charts, Bitcoin has registered a bullish structure break.
On the four-hour chart, the relative strength index (RSI) climbed above 50, strengthening the growing bullish momentum.
For the recovery to be retained, Bitcoin must decisively clear resistance between $112,500 and $113,650.
Over $113,650, it confirms that daily breakouts are bullish and negates the descending trend line that has been enacting price action over the past two weeks.
Such a move could unlock liquidity targets of $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
However, if BTC fails to maintain momentum above $113,650, the risk is skewed downwards.
Failed breakouts can expose cryptocurrencies to diminish towards order blocks between $105,000 and $100,000.
