- Bitcoin is over $115K, nearly $114,000 above the realized price of medium-term holders, raising emotions.
- Short-term holders show losses as SOPR falls, but there are no signs of the “extreme greed” cycle top.
- Analyst split: Some people see BTC peaking, others see $150,000 by Christmas after the fourth quarter rally.
Bitcoin extended its profits in September, rising from around $108,000 at the beginning of the month to over $115,000.
The move represents a mere 4% increase over the two weeks, but new on-chain data suggests that cryptocurrency may be preparing another leg that could ultimately lead to a fresh high.
The realised price of medium term holders has been infringed
Bitcoin’s rebound has rebounded from $107,000 to $114,000, according to an analysis published by contributor Shayanmarkets in Cryptoquant.
This realised price is currently close to $114,000.
Achieved prices are considered as important pivot levels, which often reflect market sentiment and potential sales pressure.
By crossing this threshold, Bitcoin reduced the likelihood of immediate sales from this cohort.
Shayanmarkets noted that the rigid breakout and integration above $114,000 could show new trust among medium-term holders.
This provides a new bull phase basis that can drive BTC towards recording levels.
However, analysts warned that failing to maintain this level is at risk of weakening emotions, and that it could open the door to a deeper corrective action in the short term.
Short term holders show signs of stress
Other on-chain signals draw more careful pictures.
Encrypted contributor GAAH highlighted the behavior of short-term holders (STH) by examining the used output profit margin (SOPR) adjusted on the 30-day moving average.
This metric measures whether an investor is selling coins with profit or loss.
Gaah observed that after trading more than four months of damage, the STH SOPR has slipped into the negative territory, indicating that the short-term holder is currently aware of the loss.
This change suggests a temporary loss of trust among speculative investors who are more sensitive to price fluctuations.
Despite Bitcoin’s wider gatherings ranging from $60,000 to $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH metric shows a decline in peaks.
In previous cycles, sharp price surges are accompanied by SOPR measurements in the “extreme greed” zone, reflecting strong retail participation.
However, this time, no such dynamics have been observed, meaning institutional investors could be the main driver behind recent profits.
Gaah added that historically, the market top is usually confirmed when short-term holders show extreme greed.
With this not happening, analysts suggested that the current pullback may not be a signal of a long-term reversal, but simply part of a healthy integration.
The outlook for the end of the year is mixed
Market observers remain divided into short-term prospects for Bitcoin.
Some analysts warn that cryptocurrencies may be nearing the peak of their current cycle, while others expect a short-term recession in September before a new rally in the final quarter of 2025.
The forecasts are very different, with some forecasts Bitcoin likely to reach $150,000 by Christmas if bullish momentum continues.
At this point, assets are $115,050, an increase of 0.7% over the past 24 hours.
With both bullishness and attention signals present, investors are closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to surpass the realised price of medium-term holders, as it could determine whether the next phase of the rally begins or if a deeper revision will unfold.
