Bitcoin at $108,000, price could eventually clear $115,000 as Fed talks about payments today

A $20 billion crash wiped out gains across major assets, sending the cryptocurrency market into a phase of uncertainty. At the center of the current debate is Bitcoin, which is trading around $110,000, just below the on-chain “realized price” that is important to traders (estimated at $115,000).

According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin falling below this indicator is usually a bearish signal, as prices often use this level as support in bull markets.

Bitcoin traders are currently facing unrealized losses of about 10%, a level that would typically see the decline slow and buy interest return. This could set the stage for a rebound if the macro environment improves.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Bulls Target Key Resistance Ahead of Fed Event

Macro catalysts to watch: Fed rate cuts and trade negotiations

Two global events could define the next phase of the cryptocurrency cycle: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions and the U.S.-China tariff negotiations.

The Fed is expected to meet on October 28-29 to discuss the possibility of lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, tariffs on China are set to expire on November 1, a geopolitical milestone that could affect market sentiment.

“The market could turn sharply positive if the US-China trade dispute moves toward resolution. This trade uncertainty was one of the biggest triggers for the recent liquidation event,” Moreno explained.

Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve will host a Payments Innovation Conference today (October 21) that will bring together regulators, financial executives, and crypto leaders. This event will explore how digital assets, AI and tokenization are shaping the global payments system. This discussion has an impact on the crypto market and could affect prices in the short term.

Any improvement in global policy clarity could revive sentiment and send money back into riskier assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

Related: Gold hits all-time high amid $1.5 million BTC parity bet, Bitcoin approaches oversold territory

4th quarter could spark new rally

Historically, the fourth quarter has been a strong period for the crypto market, often recovering after a summer downturn. If Bitcoin is able to close above $115,000, it could quickly head towards the next resistance range between $150,000 and $195,000.

Moreno added that the current bullish cycle remains active, but growth may be slower compared to early 2025.

“The $115,000 level is a significant resistance level. If Bitcoin breaks above it, we could start to expect a rebound in the fourth quarter. On the downside, $100,000 remains a psychological and technical support zone. Holding there could ease selling pressure,” Moreno said. ”

When will this cycle peak?

The big question for investors is when this bullish cycle will peak. Some analysts, like Benjamin Cowen, predict a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, while others think the market could extend into the first quarter of 2026.

Moreno’s outlook leans toward a cycle peak in late Q4 2025 to early 2026, supported by a continued uptrend, although bullish momentum has weakened.