As of 8:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Bitcoin was trading at $110,300, and prediction markets were buzzing with bets on whether the crypto heavyweight would maintain that position into November or hit new highs.
Polimarket November Bet
The popular forecasting platform PolymarketWhat will the price of Bitcoin be in November?”, traders have bet a total of over $1.2 million across outcomes.
Current favorite: 77% chance Bitcoin will rise above $115,000, with “yes” shares trading at 77 cents. The odds increased by 5 percentage points overnight, indicating confidence that BTC will firmly maintain its current range.
Current price of Bitcoin as of Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
In the middle bracket, the probability of Bitcoin clearing $125,000 is up 4% to 29%, while the probability of breaking $130,000 is slim at 14%. Traders see a modest 7% chance of BTC reaching $135,000 and only a 4% chance of it exceeding $140,000. A moonshot bet where Bitcoin reaches $200,000 this month is treated as a long shot, with odds of 1% and total volume of just $482,800.
For bears, the action is even thinner. There is a 34% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $100,000, but the odds drop sharply beyond that. There is only a 15% chance that it will be less than $95,000, and a 10% chance that it will be less than $90,000. Above $80,000, it’s barely under 3%.
In other words, polymarket traders are pricing in resilience, not capitulation.
Karushi’s year-end forecast
On Karshi, a US prediction exchange, traders can title their markets as “How far will Bitcoin fall this year?“A total of approximately $5.76 million in trades is expected, making it one of the most active crypto markets in Karshi. With the median forecast hovering around $101,000, the probability of a major failure is almost stacked up.”
Kalsi’s odds suggest a 47% chance that Bitcoin will fall 2 points this week and fall below $100,000. There is only a 20% probability of betting on a deeper decline below $90,000, while the probability is only 13% at the sub-$80,000 level. Traders see only a 6% chance of BTC falling below $70,000, with extreme bearish outcomes below $60,000 or $50,000 priced in at 4% and 3%, respectively.
Prediction market bets on Kalsi.
Essentially, the Kalsi crowd sees a solid floor forming close to six figures. Both exchanges are dominated by bulls, with speculative energy focused on whether Bitcoin can not only maintain but expand its five-digit dominance towards the end of this year.
Between Polimarket’s short-term optimism and Kalsi’s long-term stable positioning, traders seem confident that Bitcoin won’t make any new deep lows this cycle. The spread of probabilities across both platforms suggests a volatile but upward trend in November, with the most likely range between $105,000 and $125,000.
Current data shows Bitcoin traders are betting on sustained strength rather than meteoric highs. With open interest and prediction market volume reaching record levels, sentiment has shifted from thinking “Is Bitcoin going to the moon?” “How long can you maintain this strength?”
FAQ
What do Polymarket traders predict for Bitcoin in November?They give Bitcoin a 77% chance of staying above $115,000, and the heavy volume supports that result.
How much money is being staked on Polymarket’s Bitcoin market?A total of more than $1.2 million is spread across November’s price results.
What is Kalshi’s prediction for the year-end low price of Bitcoin? Karshi traders have pegged their forecast at $101,000, with only a 47% chance that BTC will fall below $100,000.
Is Bitcoin expected to fall below $90,000 this year? Karshi traders put only a 20% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $90,000 by the end of the year.
