JPMorgan & Chase, the largest US bank, has raised its forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC), predicting it could reach $170,000 in the next six to 12 months.
This new target price is Comparative analysis with the gold market and reading recent activity in the futures market.
Analysts at the firm, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, note that the crypto market has experienced a correction of nearly 20% from recent highs.
The most notable decline occurred around October 10th, when there was an unusually large amount of liquidation in the perpetual futures market, an event that marked one of the sector’s most significant corrections this year, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Despite significant sales, JPMorgan experts suggest: The deleveraging phase for perpetual futures contracts appears to be over. To a considerable extent. According to the report, the observed stabilization in these key products indicates that deleveraging of this segment may be delayed.
Gold also influences the price of Bitcoin
A central factor in predicting the price of Bitcoin is the volatility comparison between Bitcoin and gold. Analysts note that the recent rise in volatility in precious metals has made Bitcoin more attractive to investors on a risk-adjusted basis. The volatility ratios for both assets have decreased and reached below 2.0.
They estimate that Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of nearly $2.1 trillion would need to increase by almost 67% to match the total private sector investment in gold (about $6.2 trillion).
This “mechanical valuation” brings the theoretical price closer to $170,000. But for now BTC is close to $100,000As you can see from the following graph.
The financial institution’s new forecast is higher than its previous forecast issued in October, which pegged BTC’s likely peak at $165,000. If JPMorgan’s scenario for next year comes true, it would mark the end of Bitcoin’s historical pattern of four-year cycles, with 2026 theoretically representing a bear cycle.
(Tag Translation)Bitcoin (BTC)
