Ethereum’s price has fallen by about 7% in the past 24 hours and has fallen by almost 24% in a month. Traders are divided on whether to expect a rebound or brace for further declines. However, key on-chain metrics show settings that look almost identical to June, the same settings that drove Ethereum’s 116% rally. The problem is that the deeper drop happened first.
The question is whether the same thing will happen again.
A reset like the one in June is taking shape.
To understand this structure, we need to look at NUPL, the net unrealized profit and loss measure. This measures how much profit or loss the holder has without selling. If NUPL drops sharply, it is an indication that the market is clearing out weak hands and resetting before a major trend change occurs.
That reset pattern was very evident in June.
The sequence is:
- On June 5th, NUPL was around 0.24. Many thought this was the bottom.
- Ethereum rebounded to $2,814 by June 10, marking a weak recovery for Ethereum.
- However, from June 10th to June 22nd, NUPL fell to 0.17 and ETH to $2,230. This was the true bottom, 20.7% below the level of the relievers.
- Since then, ETH has appreciated 116%, rising from $2,230 to $4,829 in two months.
June NUPL reset and Ethereum price: Glassnode
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The current structure follows the same procedure.
On November 14th, NUPL was again around 0.24, the same level as on June 5th. ETH rebounded to $3,115, but the move lacked strength, much like the rally on June 10th.
Profit-taking incentives need to be lowered for the next Ethereum rally: Glassnode
After that, the sell-off returned and ETH is currently falling. If NUPL follows its June path and falls to the same reset zone around 0.17, the price prediction would reach around $2,470 following the aforementioned 20.7% correction path. Note that NUPL has already reached the 0.21 level as of November 16th and is actively declining.
Exchange activity tips for persistent weaknesses
Exchange behavior also supports this reset concept. An exchange’s net position change metric shows the amount of ETH entering and leaving the exchange. The amount outflowed on November 6th was approximately 1.14 million ETH. By November 17, that number had dropped to 574,000 ETH, a 50% decrease.
Exchange outflows slow down: Glassnode
When outflows decline this quickly, it usually means holders are selling.
The NUPL pattern and exchange activity taken together point to one idea that Ethereum may need a deeper cleanout before starting a strong recovery.
Major Ethereum price chart levels match same target
Ethereum is still moving within the downward channel that started in early October. The broader structure remains bearish, with ETH price action currently positioned close to the next key support.
The first significant level is $2,920. Losing this level at the daily close confirms that seller momentum remains. If it breaks, the next key zone lies directly at $2,466. This is the same level predicted by the NUPL reset calculation. This is a significant 17% drop from current levels.
The salient parts are:
- The June reset model points to approximately $2,470.
- The current chart structure points to $2,466.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
Traders may need to exercise caution if two separate systems reach the same zone.
The rebound from $2,466 is not surprising. Given what has happened since June 22nd, it would not be too surprising if Ethereum’s rally persists from this zone. However, this remains the most logical downside test until Ethereum price regains higher levels.
The situation could improve if ETH holds $2,920 and rebounds. But for now, the structure is still leaning towards a final flush before a meaningful reversal. A near-term recovery of $3,655 would invalidate this bottom theory for now. But that could just be the salvific rebound we see after June 5th.
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