Important points
- Polymarket users predict a 25bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve with a 97% probability.
- In the polymarket, there is almost unanimous consensus for a quarter-point rate cut before the FOMC decision.
Polymarket users have a 97% chance of predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. A decision is expected to be made within three hours.
Prediction market platforms show near-consensus expectations among users for a quarter-point rate cut.
CME FedWatch data currently shows the probability of a rate cut is about 90%, leaving just over a 10% chance that the Fed will maintain current rates.
