According to market analyst Jeff Park, spot BTC prices are being held down by long-term Bitcoin (BTC) whales selling covered calls, a strategy in which the seller collects a premium and instead sells a call option that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset in the future at a predetermined price.
Large long-term BTC holders, also known as “whales” or “OGs,” introduce a disproportionate amount of sell-side pressure through this covered call strategy, as market makers are on the buying side of covered calls, Park said.
This means that despite strong demand from traditional exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, market makers must hedge their exposure to buying calls by selling spot BTC, forcing market prices lower.
Volatility bias in native Bitcoin options as seen in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and crypto derivatives exchange Deribit. sauce: jeff park
Since the BTC used to write options is held for a long time and does not represent new demand or new liquidity, calls act as a net downward pressure on the price. Mr. Park said:
“If you already have a stock of Bitcoin that you have held for over 10 years, and you sell a call against it, the only thing that is adding new delta to the market is the short call, and the direction is negative. When you sell a call, you become a net seller of delta.”
The analysis concluded that Bitcoin’s price is driven by the options market, and as long as whales continue to squeeze short-term profits from their Bitcoin stash by selling covered calls, price trends will remain volatile.
Bitcoin decoupled from stocks as analysts try to determine where BTC price will go next
Bitcoin, which some analysts argue has a correlation with tech stocks, was decoupled from the stock market in late 2025 as Bitcoin fell to a level of around $90,000 while stocks continued to hit new highs.
The price of Bitcoin remains above $90,000. sauce: coin market cap
Analysts predict that if the US Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle and injects liquidity into the financial system, BTC will resume its price rise, which will be a driver of price appreciation for risk-on assets.
According to financial derivatives firm CME Group’s FedWatch data tool, 24.4% of traders expect another rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January.
However, other analysts are predicting a possible fall to $76,000 and say Bitcoin’s bull run is over.
