Itaú, Brazil’s largest private bank, recommended in a new research report that investors allocate 1-3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin by 2026.
The bank cited the need for risk diversification and protection against exchange rate fluctuations as the main rationale for this recommendation.
The report states that despite Bitcoin’s recent price decline, Bitcoin plays a complementary role in portfolios amid heightened global and geopolitical uncertainty. This analysis argues that crypto assets are no longer just a speculative tool, but an alternative stabilizing element for portfolios exposed to economic uncertainty.
Itau analyst Renato Eid, who signed the document, said Bitcoin does not have the same dynamics as stocks, bonds or local markets. Eid said the global and decentralized nature of the asset offers a variety of opportunities for investors who want to maintain a balance between risk and return even in negative scenarios. The report also noted that despite high volatility, Bitcoin maintains long-term upside potential.
The report noted that the poor performance in 2025 was not an isolated event. He recalled that Bitcoin was trading at around $93,500 at the beginning of the year, fell to around $80,000, and then tested historic highs of over $125,000. However, the Brazilian real’s strength against the dollar widened losses for local investors. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s year-over-year loss in dollar terms was only 3.5%, but the decline in real terms was 16.2%.
The analysis also added that rapid currency fluctuations will directly impact Bitcoin’s performance in Brazil. It was noted that the dollar exchange rate, which approached R$6.30 in December 2024, gave new strength to the BTC position, highlighting the asset’s function as a hedge against currency risks during periods of stress. Therefore, Itau argued, the real risk may be not taking a position in the market at all.
Itau emphasized a disciplined approach as a strategy. The bank said short-term price predictions often fail for risky assets. Therefore, we recommend adopting a long-term perspective, adjusting positions through regular rebalancing, and avoiding impulsive decisions based on recent volatility. Eid described this approach as “a combination of moderation and resilience.”
The report states that Bitcoin should be a complementary rather than a central element of a balanced portfolio.
*This is not investment advice.
