Julian Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity and a longtime Bitcoin bull, has become the latest financial strategist to turn bearish on Bitcoin. BTC$88,016.45citing a four-year cycle of assets.
Timmer argues that Bitcoin has historically followed repeatable patterns, and the current cycle appears to closely match previous cycles from both an analog and time-based perspective.
October’s all-time high near $125,000, reached after about 145 months of cumulative gains, remains well within the framework. Bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as winters, typically last about a year, Timmer said. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential “off year” for Bitcoin after the latest halving cycle ends.
“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may have passed another four-year halving, both price-wise and time-wise,” Timmer wrote on X.
“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 is pretty much in line with expectations after a 145-month rally. Bitcoin winter has been going on for about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for Bitcoin. Support is between $65,000 and $75,000.”
Timmer also highlighted gold’s strong performance in 2025 in contrast to Bitcoin’s negative year, and does not foresee a short-term mean reversal between the two assets.
Gold is in a robust bull market, up about 65% since the beginning of the year, outpacing global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He added that during the recent correction, gold has retained most of its gains, which he believes is a characteristic behavior of a bull market.
