Bitcoin’s recent dip below $85,000 briefly suggested new accumulation among large investors. Instead, on-chain data shows a different picture forming beneath the surface.
Although prices have stabilized above key supports, the underlying movement indicates a balanced restructuring rather than an influx of new capital into the market.
Bitcoin holders are not too bullish
Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have recently shown an increase, initially hinting at a possible whale accumulation. However, a senior researcher at Glassnode revealed that this increase reflects wallet turnover rather than new purchases. These movements do not represent additional demand for the Bitcoin market.
Wallet reshuffling occurs when large companies split or consolidate balances between addresses. This process helps manage storage, internal risk, or accounting needs. Ownership remains the same. Coinbase recently reshuffled approximately 640,000 BTC internally, providing a clear example of this action impacting cohort data.
Restructuring does not introduce new capital, so it has zero impact on prices. This activity can skew the cumulative indicator and generate false bullish signals.
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The supply of Bitcoin held by large corporations. Source: Glassnode
Using macro indicators requires even more caution. The MVRV long/short differential indicates that profits are currently concentrated among short-term Bitcoin holders rather than long-term holders. This imbalance increases downside risk because short-term holders have historically reacted quickly to price changes.
Selling pressure often increases during periods of uncertainty when the profits lie with short-term participants. These holders are more likely to lock in profits at the first sign of weakness. This dynamic can limit upside momentum and prolong price movements in key price ranges.
Bitcoin MVRV long/short difference. Source: Santiment
BTC price is expected to struggle a bit
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $87,108, above the support level at $86,361. Although this zone provides short-term stability, the recovery remains fragile. BTC will need to regain higher levels before showing a meaningful trend reversal.
Short-term holders continue to pose upside risk. If they start taking profits, Bitcoin could remain range-bound below $88,210. If this structure fails to hold, we may end up retesting $84,698, a level already reached during the recent volatility.
Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView
A stronger recovery requires Bitcoin to firmly break above $88,210. A push towards $90,401 would indicate improving momentum. Achieving this move will depend on renewed investor support, which could emerge as value-oriented buyers react to current price discounts.
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