Ethereum continues to trade below major resistance levels after weeks of correction. Despite some short-term rebound, the overall market structure remains uncertain. There are signs of recovery in the price trend, but a change in momentum has not yet been confirmed.
technical analysis
Written by Shayan
daily chart
On the daily time frame, ETH is still trading below a significant downtrend line, which has been acting as a dynamic resistance line for the past few weeks. The asset has rebounded from the $2,700 support zone, but has yet to break above the wedge and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are converging around the $3,600 mark.
In the short term, a bearish crossover between the moving averages is also very likely, which could lead to further declines in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, for buyers to regain control, the price needs to break out of the $3,500 to $3,700 supply zone. However, everything has to start with a breakout from the downtrend line.
4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a clearer rebound after a false break below the lower channel boundary near $2,750. Price quickly regained its level and resumed its short-term uptrend within the ascending channel.
The price is currently testing the same $3,000 level that triggered the previous decline. If buyers are able to turn that zone into support, we could expect further bullish movement towards the $3,400-$3,500 zone. However, if it fails here, ETH will likely pull back towards $2,900 and fall below the channel again.
The RSI is also steadily rising, but it is not overbought yet. This shows that despite momentum, the price is still vulnerable to resistance zones.
On-chain analysis
exchange reserves
Ethereum’s foreign exchange reserves continue to decline aggressively and are currently at their lowest level in years (approximately 16.2 million ETH). This suggests long-term accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure from holders.
Historically, a decline in foreign exchange reserves is bullish in the medium term and indicates coins are being moved from exchanges to cold storage. However, prices have not yet reflected this, which may suggest that market participants are still waiting for macro confirmation or external factors before buying aggressively.
Therefore, while on-chain data supports the long-term bullish case, short-term technicals remain fragile.
