The US-listed Spot Bitcoin ETF has suffered large redemptions exceeding $1 billion for the third time in a row.
The speed of this U-turn is surprising considering the strong start to the year. In the first two trading days of this year, 12 Bitcoin ETF products delivered a combined profit of nearly $1.2 billion.
But the strength of that inflow is being replaced by outflow.
From January 6 to January 8, these funds outflowed capital, posting net outflows of $243.2 million, $486.1 million, and $398.8 million, respectively.
The total amount of bloodletting for the three days was about $1.13 billion, and the actual flow of funds for the month was about $40 million, a negligible positive balance.
According to crypto slate According to the data, Bitcoin’s price movements reflected this volatility. On January 8th, the top crypto asset traded above $94,000 before testing support below $90,000.
liquidity trap
The structure of the sell-off suggests this is not a retail panic, but rather structural risk aversion by major players using the most liquid products available.
In fact, on the heaviest selling day, sector giants BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the exits.
However, focusing only on daily ETF churn can miss broader signals.
CryptoQuant analysis suggests that attempts to time the market based on these flow optics are increasingly futile.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that capital inflows into the broader Bitcoin network have virtually dried up, and liquidity channels are too diverse to allow a single metric to tell the whole story.
Importantly, Ju argued that the market has evolved beyond the simple “whale-and-retail” dumping cycle of previous eras.
He pointed out that the presence of large institutional holders with infinite tenors, particularly MicroStrategy, which holds 673,000 BTC in treasury, provides a floor that did not exist in previous bear markets.
These companies are less likely to liquidate, making a catastrophic 50% collapse from their all-time highs less likely. Instead, the base scenario is shifting toward a regime of “boring sideways” price movements as capital rotates away from cryptocurrencies and into stocks and other hard assets.
On-chain warning light
The internal momentum signal flashes yellow while the floor is raised.
CryptoQuant data reveals that Bitcoin’s 30-day “apparent demand” has returned to negative territory, suggesting that new capital absorption is no longer keeping up with effective supply.
This change reflects a well-known macro-on-chain pattern. This means that long-term inactive coins re-enter circulation as new demand weakens.
The discrepancy is striking when comparing price changes to changes in demand over the past 30 days. In previous cycles, sustained positive demand tended to support large price increases.
However, while demand is currently structurally weak, prices are stabilizing.
This indicates that the recent rebound is likely driven by short-term positioning rather than sustained spot accumulation.
Unless there is a clear recovery in on-chain demand metrics, any upward movement is likely to continue to face selling pressure from both short-term holders and previously dormant supply re-entering the market.
Notably, this coincides with warning signs that the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio, a key measure of network profitability, is trending downward.
The decline in MVRV indicates that unrealized gains across the network are not expanding as fast as they were at the peak of the bull market.
The indicator currently sits at a fragile midpoint. While still well above the “value zone” that typically attracts contrarian accumulation, it lacks the momentum to justify a sustained premium.
In this no man’s land, assets become hypersensitive to negative catalysts.
Macro headwinds and gold
On the other hand, the stagnation in demand for cryptocurrencies is not occurring in isolation. It coincides with the historic resurgence of its analogue predecessor, gold, and the broader macro environment.
The Kobessi Letter data highlighted a dramatic shift in the global financial order. The US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to around 40%, the lowest level in 20 years and a decline of 18 percentage points over the past decade.
Conversely, the share of gold in reserves has risen to 28%, the highest level since the early 1990s. This rise has given bullion a larger share of global foreign exchange reserves than the euro, yen, and British pound combined.
The Kobeisi letter pointed out that this is not a retail frenzy, but a change in sovereignty. Central banks are diversifying away from the US dollar and stockpiling metals.
This pushed gold prices up 65% in 2025, the biggest annual gain since 1979, while the U.S. dollar index suffered its worst performance in eight years.
But the short-term rally in the dollar, which hit a one-month high this week, complicates the situation.
This comes as markets look forward to potentially resilient US labor data.
The risk of printing this data is very high. A better-than-expected jobs report could strengthen the dollar’s recent strength and further raise expectations for interest rate cuts, weighing on both gold and Bitcoin.
Conversely, a weak report could reignite liquidity expectations that fueled a brief rally earlier in the year.
For now, the $1 billion streak serves as a reality check. The ETF ecosystem has matured, but that maturity has led to correlations rather than separations.
With apparent demand turning negative and global capital returning to physical safe havens, Bitcoin appears to be in a stagnation, caught between a high institutional floor and a macro-indifference ceiling.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
