Ethereum price has broken out of a two-month-long downward wedge and is showing new bullish momentum. ETH’s technical structure is currently showing potential upside after weeks of compression.
But the upswing story faces challenges as large holders begin to expand in power and concerns grow that whale activity could throttle profits.
Ethereum whales express skepticism
As the price rose, Ethereum whales turned into active sellers. Over the past three days, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have sold approximately 300,000 ETH. At current prices, these sales exceed $971 million, representing a significant supply increase.
This action suggests that there is skepticism among large holders about whether ETH can sustain its rise. Whales often diversify to lock in profits during breakouts. Their actions could slow upward momentum, especially if demand from other cohorts cannot absorb the additional supply.
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Ethereum Whale Holdings. Source: Santiment
Selling a whale does not guarantee a reversal, but it does increase short-term risk. Large trades can affect liquidity conditions and, if repeated, can put pressure on prices. Ethereum’s rise will now have to combat this oversupply.
ETH LTH could stabilize price
Long-term holder behavior brings balance to whale distribution. Ethereum’s activity index has sharply declined since late December 2025. This indicator tracks whether long-held coins are moving or remain dormant.
The declining Liveness measure indicates that long-term ETH holders are choosing to hold rather than sell. This pattern reflects investor confidence looking ahead to the longer horizon. Their suppression allows prices to be stabilized during short circulation periods.
Volatility often decreases when long-term holders hold onto their positions. Their actions reduce the circulating supply available for sale. This dynamic could help offset whale-driven pressure and support Ethereum’s broader bullish structure.
ETH price breakout rally to continue
Ethereum is trading near $3,265 at the time of writing after confirming a breakout from a descending wedge. This pattern predicts a potential 29.5% upside with a target of $4,061. Achieving that level requires maintaining demand and reducing distribution.
More realistic short-term goals are at the bottom. If ETH secures support at $3,287, it could move towards $3,447. If this level holds, it will confirm the strength of the breakout and provide a basis for a move above $3,607.
ETH price analysis. Source: TradingView
Downside risks remain related to whale behavior. If the selling strengthens, Ethereum could fall below $3,131. A further decline towards $3,000 and even $2,902 would invalidate the bullish theory, invalidate the breakout, and expose ETH to a correction phase.
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