If there’s one thing Microsoft’s recent earnings report made abundantly clear, it’s that investors have no tolerance for cloud growth to stall, given the billions of dollars being poured into AI infrastructure.
So all eyes are understandably on Amazon Web Services as the tech giant prepares to report its fourth quarter results on February 5 (after market close).
Amazon stock remains relatively strong in 2026, but whether it continues to rise will depend on whether AWS can prove its recent reacceleration is sustainable.
Heading into the quarterly print run, AMZN stock is up nearly 10% from its November lows.
Why beating consensus isn’t enough for Amazon stock
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Meeting the “official” consensus may not be enough for AMZN stock to rise post-earnings.
FactSet analysts forecast revenue of $211.4 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.97, but the rumored “bogey” for AWS is much more positive.
The market consensus for AWS’s growth rate is currently 21%, but top analysts at Deutsche Bank and UBS suggest the actual benchmark for the stock to break out is 23%.
A jump above 23% would signal Amazon’s success in converting its massive artificial intelligence backlog into realized revenue, effectively silencing critics who branded the company an AI laggard last year.
How to manage AMZN stock towards 4th quarter financial results
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UBS analyst Stephen Zhu said that while breaking the 23% level might not be all that convenient for AWS, its long-term potential still makes a good case for buying Amazon stock at current levels.
Multinational companies remain committed to doubling their production capacity by 2027, but Ju believes the market “has not yet priced in” that.
Amazon’s recent landmark deals with Open AI and Anthropic also come as Jefferies senior analyst Brent Till maintained a buy rating on AMZN this week.
“AWS offers one of the clearest growth re-acceleration stories,” he told clients in a recent report, saying it could push the company’s stock to $300 over the next 12 months.
More broadly, business sentiment has improved as Amazon expands its Project Rainier data center, making AI stocks even more attractive as long-term holdings, Till added.
Final verdict: Execution over excuses
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After all, Amazon’s Feb. 5 report needs to be comprehensive. Beyond the cloud, investors will look for signs that AI is increasing the margins of advertising businesses and improving the efficiency of retail delivery networks.
If the giant can “beat and raise” powered by AWS growth above the important 23% mark, it will solidify its position as a top-performing company for the remainder of 2026.
However, if growth only reaches the 21% consensus, AMZN stock may struggle to maintain its recent momentum on the back of increased capital spending.
In this high-stakes AI environment, Amazon.com must prove that its big investments translate into faster growth or risk being left behind by rivals from more nimble big tech companies.
