The Bitcoin bear market has surprised some sections of the cryptocurrency public as several investors expected the price to recover from various stages of the correction. However, some sections of the market have seen this stage of adjustment, using on-chain data as the basis for predictions.
One such group are on-chain data analysts who are calling for the emergence of a bear market based on the apparent decline in demand. Using the same model, a prominent market researcher suggested potential catalysts for a Bitcoin price recovery.
Bitcoin ETF begins 2026 with $1.8 billion outflow
Anonymous analyst Darkfost published a recent post on social media platform X. shared Spot Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) could play a big role in the recovery of the cryptocurrency market. Market data shows that demand for cryptocurrencies through ETFs has been weak so far in 2026.
This cautious stance by investors and “liquidity contraction” has had a significant impact on the market, with prices continuing to fall to new lows every other week. Darkfost highlighted that early 2026 looked like a period of reduced risk on the Bitcoin ETF side, largely driven by significant capital inflows and strong speculative momentum.
Darkfost wrote in the X post:
Market participants appear to be reassessing their risk exposure in a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Not surprisingly, recent on-chain data supports growing investor apathy towards the Bitcoin ETF market. According to data highlighted by Darkfost, 2026 starts with net outflows of around $1.8 billion. This is in stark contrast to the very positive levels seen in 2024 and early 2025.
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X
Continued capital inflows and significant expansion of market liquidity characterized this period. However, it is worth mentioning that 2025 ended on a more negative note, with ETF inflows declining from $27 billion to around $20 billion by the end of the year.
These trends therefore suggest that the current demand weakness is more of a gradual decline than a sharp one. In any case, this weakness in demand has left the Bitcoin market unprotected and more vulnerable to selling pressure and near-term volatility.
Darkfost concluded that the continued run of Bitcoin ETF inflows could be a “key catalyst” to restore stronger market structure and investor confidence. However, the signs have not been encouraging so far, with the US-based BTC exchange-traded fund recording net outflows of around $360 million over the past week.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $70,600, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC crosses $70,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
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