After a week where the price rebounded slightly, Bitcoin is currently at an inflection point. The analysis showed that rising volatility has divided positions on the immediate future.
The major cryptocurrencies have slightly overcame the decline that brought them down to the $60,000 level, but volatility has been high, trading around $69,000 at the close of this edition. remain constant.
such a situation creating uncertainty among investorsand that leads to polarized attitudes that affect prices.
Analysts’ opinions change greatly. Most focus on the topic of volatility to talk about the near future of prices. On the other hand, some consider the long-term Bitcoin cycle more.
There is an analysis focused on cycles
Among those keeping an eye on the Bitcoin cycle is Julian Timmer, global head of Fidelity. maintains a bullish stance. “A drop to just $60,000 would be a relatively mild winter for Bitcoin,” he argues.
Timmer thinks so 60,000 is the support zone. A floor I don’t think I’ll be able to get off. “As Bitcoin matures, its ups and downs should become less intense. No one knows if $60,000 is the floor, but I think it is,” he wrote in X.
The manager asserts that this number could be the lowest BTC reached in the cycle that started after the last halving that occurred in April 2024. Therefore, a new rise is expected.
Based on the mathematical harmonization of past cycles, which of course does not guarantee future cycles, I believe that future waves could lead us to new highs.
Julian Timmer Global de Fidelity Director .
This focus on cycles is also supported by businessman and investor Anthony Pompliano, who has seen a sharp decline. they are normal,y they shouldn’t be scared Because they always expect increases and new historic highs. “High volatility creates opportunities for investors. ‘Who cares if it goes down in the short term?'” he said during an interview.
Other analysts emphasize volatility
More cautious analysis warns of “structural vulnerabilities” weighing down prices. Glassnode notes that Bitcoin prices are “on the defensive.”
They emphasize that Vulnerability of Recent Buyer Beliefs. We also highlight the performance of perpetual futures with compressed open interest and premiums.
There are operators who pay a premium. hold a long position Bitcoin futures, especially on CME (preferred in the US). There are many carriers outside the United States, they are reducing positionsespecially on the platform offshore Like Delibit.
This trend indicates growing demand for leveraged long exposure among US investors (indicating confidence). On the other hand, the market offshore give signs weaken.
“The widening spread between CME and Deribit bases serves as a real-time indicator of geographic risk demand,” said Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG. noticeable contradiction in action of investors.
Comparison between those who sell and those who continue
The existence of investors revealed through statistics more likely to sell. Some of them are buyers spot (cash) and new investors.
As reported by Criptonoticias, the data also shows different behavior among a key segment of ETF investors. Institutional investors and investors trading through traditional brokerage accounts Acts as a “strong hand” that absorbs volatilitywithout succumbing to the panic that buyers may have. spot.
In this way, institutional investors A more strategic approach. Some whales took advantage of the decline and accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices. Some retail investors are adopting a “wait and see” strategy, waiting for clearer signals before making important decisions.
Nevertheless, risk appetite is declining, according to general estimates on the Bybit exchange. Based on this, they observe that many people are reducing their exposure to digital currencies and taking refuge in other assets.
In this way, vigilance prevails in the face of uncertainty and contradictory predictions. This week’s slight rise sparked a frenzy, but BTC price low compared to all-time highs.
Amid this divergence, analysts agree that volatility lies in: will continue to be an important feature of the market. Investors must be prepared to face both opportunities and risks.
