Bitcoin has slipped off its familiar shelf for the past two days, with the order book continuing to drive bids lower as liquidity dwindles.
However, by Wednesday afternoon, prices had broken back toward $65,000 after breaking through the low $63,000s, with prices ranging from roughly $62,800 to $66,200 over the past 24 hours.
A bounce represents a market that has hit an air pocket, found the next ledge, and checked to see if there are still buyers for the wrapper.
The cleanest signal came through the US Spot Bitcoin ETF, which saw net inflows of around $257.7 million on Tuesday, with IBIT at +$78.9 million, FBTC at +$82.8 million, and ARKB at +$71.1 million.
This single green day was critical, as the market had conditioned traders to expect leaks, and by mid-February, the market had fallen to -$104.9 million on February 17th, -$133.3 million on February 18th, 2. A series of red spots on flows stood out, including -$165.8 million on February 19th and -$203.8 million on February 23rd, but this built a simple narrative, with selling pressure continuing to find an outlet through the wrapper.
Tuesday broke that pattern and showed the market starting to bid up as the ledger tightened.
The options market provided the other half of the picture, but it arrived with a different tone.
Volatility tilted further towards Deribit puts as traders started paying downside cover, with the 7-day put-call skew increasing from -6% to -17% in 24 hours, even as prices climbed toward the first repair level.
The market can make spot purchases and protection purchases at the same time, and the combination turns rebounds into tests of follow-through.
Macro data provides the context, tariffs act like volatility levers, and timing coincides with flashes. President Trump has introduced a new 10% tariff worldwide starting February 24th, and the tax rate will rise to 15% by the end of this week.
Barron’s calls the move part of broader risk aversion and puts this week’s rally in context. When policy uncertainty grows and spreads, liquid assets tend to trade like mood rings.
Recovery therefore involves narrow questions with large shadows. Will flows continue to arrive while macro volatility declines, or will the market revert to protecting the lower shelf as its default job?
The answer lies within the level ladder. When the bid returns with patience, the price climbs the repair ladder, but when the bid weakens, the price returns to the outcome zone and picks up speed.
Bitcoin ETF flows flip to green
Tuesday’s net inflows of +$257.7 million were higher than the long-term daily average of +$101.8 million and roughly 2.5 times the daily size, with IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB contributing the majority.
Focused leadership really means one thing: Large allocators use the deepest pipes, and the deepest pipes set the tone for the day.
Still, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF has remained net short for about $2.6 billion since the beginning of the year, with outflows totaling about $4.3 billion for about five consecutive weeks.
This context turns Tuesday into an early data point in a larger drawdown story, with a single inflow day sometimes marking a turning point and sometimes a pause. Follow-through will determine which interpretation is given more weight.
For the price map, the implications remain mechanical, with $65,000 remaining the first repair rung, and a continued hold above it setting up higher rungs at $66,894 and $67,995, a room where previous support exists as resistance.
Hedging will still be noisy and protection will be more expensive
The skew movement in Deribit options keeps the rebound honest, -6% to -17% in 24 hours, with insurance repricing fast, and the report notes that risk appetite has worsened with spot trades trading around $62,000.
This combination tells a simple story. The market has accepted the rebound and also priced in its path as volatile, which often leads to a supply-facing rally as it approaches the repair zone.
Deribit’s Week 8 report also notes compression of volatility around the 50% area, which is important for the scenario framework, with lower volume regimes tightening bands of expected movement, tighter bands making level interactions more meaningful, and each shelf a referendum with sharper consequences for positioning.
Earlier this month, Kaiko highlighted that stablecoins account for about 10.3% of the crypto market capitalization, with about $22 billion in net inflows into stablecoins in about three weeks.
This pool could act like cash on the sidelines, returning to risk, or sitting as parking capital in the market as a sign of caution while we wait for the macroeconomy to stop shaking its gears.
This is where the ETF wrapper meets the stablecoin pool, where a sustained series of ETF inflows can represent its rotation, and a fade-in of flows can represent continued parking.
Tuesday offered the first bid through the wrapper, but future sessions will determine whether that bid becomes customary.
Bitcoin has fallen from $70,524 to $64,074 over the past three weeks, with an estimated annualized realized volatility of approximately 37%. Combine this with the argument that Deribit’s implied volatility has compressed by about 50%, and the coming week looks more like a shelf limit test than a free-fall story.
Bitcoin defends key support as bulls look to confirm local bottoms
Using a standard volatility model based on how Bitcoin normally trades, BTC is around $65,300 and the expected 7-day price movement (1 standard deviation) is around $60,900 to $69,900. Over a 30-day period, that range extends from approximately $56,500 to $75,300.
These predictive bands are consistent with the liquidity ladder, with $61,726 to $61,099 forming the first significant ledge in the expected near-term move, while $56,048 marks the bottom of the next rung, where the price could be accepted if momentum changes and sellers regain control.
There are currently three clean paths on the market, each linking incentives to tangible returns.
- Repair path: Inflows into the ETF continue, with prices holding above $65,000 and tapes buzzing at $66,894 and $67,995, slowly rebuilding through wrapper creation and patient spot bidding.
- Fade path: Flow moves back towards the red stripe and the skew remains significantly negative as it rebounds to meet supply between $65,000 and $67,000, pulling price back toward the $61,000 hinge.
- Macro shock pass: Tariff uncertainty remains active, spreads widen, liquidity thins and the market rushes through the ledge towards the next acceptance zone around $56,048.
Recovery over the past 24 hours has been mechanical. Flows eventually printed green, hedges priced in the downside with urgency, and macros kept pressure on the pipes.
With prices regaining some headroom towards $65,000, the market’s job now is simple. The wrapper must prove it can continue absorbing inventory while tariffs maintain risk appetite with a shorter lead.
In the channel map, its role is clear. Holds a shelf at $61,000 and establishes acceptance at $65,000 and above.
With that level restored, the repair ladder is back in action, with the market taking each rung and bidding to either patiently step in and push higher, or weed out and force another test of downside support.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
