Bitcoin has rebounded from an early February sell-off that sent it as high as $60,000 and sent the most oversold signal in history, relieving some of the pressure weighing on the crypto market.
According to crypto slate According to the data, the flagship digital asset has been stable in recent days, briefly approaching the $70,000 level, but has settled around $67,300 at the time of writing.
This price action coincided with three days of net inflows into the month’s strongest U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), contributing to improved overall market sentiment.
At the same time, the market is showing signs of improvement in spot demand for the first time since late November.
As a result, there is renewed speculation in the market that BTC could recover to $90,000 in March, although derivatives positions suggest traders still view that outcome as a long-term goal.
Options are pricing recovery, but not conviction.
The Bitcoin options market suggests that traders are still paying for protection despite the buzz around the rapid pullback.
On Deribit, the March 27 $90,000 call recently traded around $522. This means that the implied probability of Bitcoin reaching that level by late March is less than 6%, based on the standard Black-Scholes model.
Meanwhile, a $50,000 put on March 27 is near $1,380, suggesting a roughly 20% chance of further decline.
CME Group data shows similar caution. On February 5, 25 Delta’s implied volatility rose to 75% for calls and 95% for puts, both the highest since 2022, while 25 Delta’s risk reversal fell to -19.34, its lowest level since 2022.
This combination is typical of a market where the market is still buying downside insurance and is confident that the decline is over.
At the same time, the position of derivatives shows why the recovery story is not going away.
According to CME, open interest on the March expiry is skewed bullish, with approximately $660 million in call interest and $240 million in put interest, a ratio of 3 to 1.
Derive, a crypto options platform, echoed this in a Feb. 27 email statement to firememecoins.
The firm said Bitcoin volatility has returned to the 50% range, consistent with a consolidation rather than a panic, while the 25 delta skew has improved from about -15% to about -7%, suggesting traders are not becoming defensive.
Through the March 27 deadline, the market has shown call accumulation of $80,000 and $90,000 and meaningful put interest of $60,000 and $55,000, indicating investors want upside exposure without dropping their hedges.
In conclusion, the company states:
“The data shows the direction in which the market is trying to form a base. Compressed volatility, improving sentiment indicators, and more structured positioning suggest that traders are moving from defensive panic to conditional optimism, preparing to participate in the upside while being protected from another leg of decline.”
ETF Flows Still Key to Rapid Moves
If Bitcoin is to emerge from its slow recovery, the ETF market remains the most obvious source of additional demand. This is where the rebound incident faces its biggest challenge.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows of $2.6 billion since the beginning of 2026, according to data from SoSoValue.
This marks a sharp change from the same period last year and suggests that one of Bitcoin’s most visible institutional demand channels is losing momentum rather than gaining momentum.
The problem for bullish investors isn’t a one-week downturn. The risk is that continued negative flows will limit upside, weaken momentum, and cause spot buying to absorb selling pressure without help from one of the market’s biggest sources of demand.
However, there are early signs that demand may recover.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in net inflows over the past three trading sessions this week, even as BTC continues to trade within a tight range, according to SoSoValue data.
This represents a marked improvement after a long period of capital outflows.
Still, three days of inflows does not establish a lasting trend, especially if Bitcoin is firmly on the way to $90,000 in March.
For that to happen, the ETF market will likely need several more strong sessions in a row, enough to absorb the overhead supply and create a kind of feedback loop that attracts additional spot demand.
Even if the flow improves, $90,000 is not a clean air goal.
Glassnode previously noted that Bitcoin is still in a defensive phase, with selling pressure still being absorbed by the $60,000-$72,000 demand corridor.
The company also noted that supply cluster overhead costs ranged from $82,000 to $97,000 and from $100,000 to $117,000. These levels reflect a situation where many holders are carrying unrealized losses and could be aggressively selling into a rescue rally.
In that context, $90,000 is more than just a psychological indicator. It is located in a heavier supply range that the market needs to respond to.
Furthermore, the realized price of Glassnode, which is widely viewed as a proxy for market total cost metrics, was $54,614.94 as of February 26th.
This does not mean Bitcoin has to return to that level. However, this indicates the distance between current price and deeper valuation metrics, which tends to draw attention during times of stress.
In the short term, recent efforts to recoup $70,000 have been met with visible profit-taking.
Glassnode said smoothed net realized gains and losses exceeded $5 million per hour on February 25 as Bitcoin rose to a peak near $69,400 before stalling.
The firm said profit-taking continues to absorb momentum around the $70,000 level, confirming the market is recovering in an illiquid environment, and that even a modest burst of selling could derail progress.
The catalyst is clogged in March, but it is not certain.
They also object to treating $90,000 as a simple amount in the March calendar.
That’s because Bitcoin faces a series of macroeconomic challenges that could shape demand for the risky asset.
For context, the February US employment report is scheduled to be released on March 6th. Consumer price index data for February is scheduled to be released on March 11th. The Federal Reserve will meet March 17-18. The personal income and expenditure report for January, which includes PCE inflation, is scheduled to be released on March 25.
These events are significant as Bitcoin remains sensitive to interest rate expectations, inflation data, and the broader liquidity situation.
Reuters reported this week that the Fed is expected to keep interest rates in the 3.50-3.75% range at its March meeting, as recent changes in market expectations have eroded confidence in an early rate cut.
This background is not necessarily negative for Bitcoin. However, it also does not provide a clear easing signal that would allow for a rapid rally to $90,000.
Taken together, these circumstances help explain the market’s cautious optimism.
However, there is a reliable path for prices to rise in March. Softer inflation data, a less restrictive Fed, several rounds of ETF inflows, and more short covering in derivatives could send Bitcoin soaring.
March option positioning shows that traders are looking at that scenario. But continued calls for downside protection suggest they are not completely convinced.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin
