As of March 2, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $69,200, very close to the $70,000 threshold. At this price, the asset is 45% below its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 reached on October 6, 2025.
This setback has reignited doubts in the market. Has Bitcoin already found a bottom or is there still room for further decline?
In this regard, Yonsei Dent, a specialist at CryptoQuant, a specialist on-chain data analysis company, said: Presents a comparative study based on previous BTC cyclespredicting the likely bottom range of the current bear market.
Its analysis is based on both historical attrition rates and on-chain metrics. Throughout its history, BTC has experienced four major full market cycles characterized by bull phases followed by significant corrections.
Each cycle consists of an expansion period in which prices reach all-time highs, followed by a contraction or bear market.
In the first cycle (2011), the asset fell 93% from its ATH. In the 2013-2016 cycle, the decline was 86%. From 2017 to 2018, the decline rate reached 84%. In the 2021-2022 cycle, the decline rate was 77%. From $69,000 to $15,500.
According to Yonsei Dent, if the current cycle (which started in 2024) partially replicates its historical structure, the decline from the high of $126,000 could be in the range of 70% to 75%.. If that happens, the bottom price will likely be in the range of approximately $31,500 to $38,000.
BTC is currently trading at around $69,200, This scenario implies a further decline of around 45% to 55% from current levels.
This rate is slightly lower than in previous cycles, which may be interpreted as the depth of the decline becoming more gradual as the market matures. but, It is clear that this represents a significant correction.
Time base: When could a Bitcoin bottom occur?
This analysis also incorporates a cycle-based time variable associated with half-life. This is a scheduled event in the Bitcoin protocol that occurs approximately every four years, as explained in Cryptopedia, the educational section of CriptoNoticias.
In that case, the reward miners receive for validating a block will be cut in half. This mechanism reduces the issuance of new BTC and historically Expansion and subsequent modification cycles of the market.
Yonsei Dent compared the time from the previous halving to the formation of a bearish bottom. By reproducing the post-halving cycle patterns of 2012, 2016, and 2020, Analysts predict that the bottom of the current cycle could be between June and December 2026.historically most concentrated between September and November 2026.
To support his hypothesis, the analyst used on-chain indicators. profitable supply (supply with profit).
In the previous graph, the blue line represents the evolution of the indicator profitable supply the red arrow points to the lower zone of the indicator, which is historically associated with periods of greater market stress. At that moment, A significant portion of the total BTC supply will be lost.
This metric measures the percentage of Bitcoin’s total supply that is profitable, meaning the current price is higher than the price at the time of acquisition. If this ratio drops sharply, a significant portion of the market Losses are occurring, which historically coincide with areas of yielding and bottom formation.
A capitulation is a period when many investors sell all at once, fearing further decline, and exit the market at a loss.
These stages are usually characterized by a spike in trading volume and strong selling pressure, accompanied by a sudden drop in BTC price. Previous cycles have been preceded by price stabilization and the start of a new phase of accumulation.
For example, in 2022, the background phase was extended by approximately six months. While the indicator is in the zone below it.
According to Yonsei Dent, if a bearish structure in 2022 is superimposed on the current indicator movements, The predicted range is again consistent with a 70% to 75% decline. From the current cycle’s historical maximum.
Not a certainty, but a possible scenario
The analysis itself reveals that previous cycles do not guarantee that history will repeat itself exactly. Duration and depth may vary depending on macroeconomic conditions, global liquidity and geopolitical factors every bear market.
However, historical comparisons suggest that if the current cycle respects past structure, BTC price may be subject to further bearish pressure before establishing a definitive bottom.
For now, the trading price of BTC is below $70,000, far from the highs of October 2025. Markets remain focused on whether past trends once again provide clues about the direction of the economic cycle.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
