Although Bitcoin is still trapped in a broad correction structure, the price trend has started to stabilize after defending the $60,000 demand area. Daily chart remains cautiously slanted $BTC It trades below the major moving averages and below the downward resistance trend line.
As such, cryptocurrencies are at a critical juncture, where a rally could extend the recovery towards overhead supply, while a failure could sustain the broader downtrend.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On the daily time frame, Bitcoin is still trading within a clear bearish structure, with the price below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 100-day moving average is currently trending lower near the mid-$80,000s, while the 200-day moving average is trending higher near the mid-$90,000s, indicating that the broader trend remains under pressure.
In addition, $BTC This means that buyers have not yet achieved a convincing structural reversal.
That being said, the reaction from the blue support zone around $60,000 was technically significant. After a sharp flash below $60,000, buyers stepped in aggressively and $BTC It has since rebounded towards the $68,000 level. The first major resistance remains around $76,000 to $80,000, with previous horizontal support turning into supply. As long as Bitcoin stays below that area, the rebound will likely be seen as correctional.
$BTC/USDT 4 hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains firmly within an ascending channel, suggesting that the recent move off the lows is more of a recovery phase than a complete bullish reversal. The asset is currently hovering around $68,000 after being rejected from the upper end of the channel near the $72,000 to $75,000 resistance area. This rejection confirms that sellers are still willing to rally, especially if: $BTC The top of the channel approaches the confluence resistor where it overlaps the horizontal supply.
The momentum has also cooled down significantly. The RSI pushed into overbought territory during the recent rally, but has since reversed and returned to neutral, indicating that the upside strength is weakening in the short term.
For buyers, staying above the mid-channel area and continuing to protect the $64,000-$65,000 area will maintain a constructive structure for further upside. On the downside, a breakdown below the lower bound of the channel could push Bitcoin back toward the $60,000 support zone and even below.
On-chain analysis
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL) has fallen sharply and currently sits at around 0.20. This is a major reset compared to the euphoric numbers seen during the rally towards cycle highs.
Simply put, a large portion of paper profits has flowed out of the market, and this typically reflects a significant reduction in excess speculation. This does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal, but it often creates a healthier backdrop than the overheating conditions seen near major peaks.
Historically, readings of NUPL around this zone indicate that the market is no longer in euphoria and is instead approaching the kind of emotional reset that can support medium-term foundation building. This fits well with the current price structure, where Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a significant correction rather than accelerating into a new expansionary phase.
Therefore, on-chain data suggests that downside risk may be limited compared to near the highs, but for a stronger bullish case, any improvement in the on-chain backdrop would require confirmation from price through a recovery of higher resistance levels on both the daily and 4-hour charts.
