Bitcoin fell below $70,000 over the weekend on weak U.S. jobs data, and further spikes in oil prices reignited stagflation concerns and drove investors out of risk assets.
The largest cryptocurrency fell to $65,660, according to crypto slate Less than a week after hitting a monthly high of nearly $74,000.
The move pushed Bitcoin back below price levels closely monitored by spot traders and derivatives markets, underscoring once again how quickly macro shocks can ripple through to cryptocurrencies when liquidity conditions tighten.
Macro shock hits virtual currencies
February’s employment report provided the first shock to BTC traders.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of non-farm employees decreased by 92,000 in February 2026, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the average hourly wage rose 0.4% from the previous month, and wages rose 3.8% from the previous year.
This combination presents a more difficult backdrop for the market, with signs of slowing growth emerging before wage pressures are fully resolved.
As a result, the market reaction followed the familiar pattern of interest rates moving, stock futures falling, and cryptocurrencies falling.
Essentially, traders didn’t see the labor data as a direct signal that the Fed might cut rates soon.
Rather, this data raises the risk that inflation will remain sticky even as growth slows, which tends to destabilize cross-asset markets.
This is a difficult setup for Bitcoin in the short term. When macro data forces investors to reconsider growth, inflation and policy all at once, the first thing they often do is reduce their exposure to liquid assets.
Bitcoin remains one of the most liquid risk trades in global markets, a characteristic that can work against it in times of stress.
In derivative-heavy venues, declines can intensify quickly if price declines trigger a forced unwinding, prompting further selling.
Oil adds to policy problems
Meanwhile, oil prices have given investors another reason to remain defensive.
BRN Research Director Timothy Michiel said: crypto slate Considering that oil prices have doubled in three months due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the discussion should take into account the fact that oil prices have soared to more than $110 per barrel.
CryptoQuant data links oil price movements to rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a conundrum, accounting for about 20% of the world’s daily oil exports and almost 35% of the oil transported by sea.
Oil prices have risen more than 60% since the beginning of the year, raising concerns about inflation and potentially tightening financial conditions.
Cryptocurrency trading firm QCP also described the oil move as part of a broader deterioration in market sentiment.
The report said oil prices rose above $115 over the weekend due to a lack of detente in Iran, persistent supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, broader Middle East instability and concerns about a conflict that could last longer than the market had anticipated.
QCP said global stock markets had turned defensive, adding that the US dollar remained the preferred defensive asset, with US Treasuries and gold also under pressure as oil prices raised inflation concerns and pushed yields higher.
Oil shocks are important for Bitcoin because they directly affect interest rate discussions. Despite the weakening labor market, rising oil prices could add to inflationary pressures.
Such a combination clouds the Fed’s outlook and reduces confidence in short-term interest rate easing.
In cryptocurrencies, where sentiment can change rapidly, that uncertainty is often enough to overwhelm long-term narratives about scarcity and adoption.
ETF flows and miner selling shape trades
The drop below $70,000 is also significant because Bitcoin’s market structure has changed over the past year.
The introduction of spot ETFs has expanded access to assets, but has also made daily price movements more sensitive to institutional flows.
During periods of strong demand, this structure supports stable spot purchases. Weaknesses can be amplified when allocators retreat or become tactical during periods of high uncertainty.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF saw consecutive inflows of $787 million in the week ending February 27, and net inflows of $568 million in the broader period from March 2 to March 6, marking the first time since October 2025 that it had two consecutive weeks of inflows.
The strong performance marked a major turnaround for the investment vehicle, which had recently experienced outflows totaling more than $3 billion for five consecutive weeks.
However, the current influx of funds shows that institutional bidding is no longer one-sided, just as price trends have become fragile again.
On the other hand, this change also provided new evidence that miners remain a source of supply.
Mishir pointed out that since October, listed miners have sold over 15,000 BTC.
He said Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February, Bitdeer liquidated its entire BTC vault, and Core Scientific plans to sell about 2,500 BTC in the first quarter as some miners redirect the funds to AI infrastructure and data center expansion.
These sales do not necessarily determine prices in and of themselves, but they are important when broader liquidity is already tight.
In particular, CryptoQuant data shows that market liquidity is thin and there are signs of tension in stablecoin flows.
The company noted that net stablecoin inflows to the exchange have remained negative since the beginning of the year.
Binance had monthly net flows of about -$2 billion, followed by Bitfinex at about -$336 million, both numbers improving from February 15th’s -$6.7 billion and -$443 million.
QCP said Bitcoin has shown unusual resilience in that environment, a pattern not seen in the crypto market for some time, despite the VIX rising above 29. The company also noted that options positioning appeared less panicked than during the initial shock.
Short-term downside protection is concentrated between $61,000 and $64,000, and trades involving 500 BTC in the 72,000 straddle on April 26, 2024 signaled an expectation that volatility would continue.
QCP added that its highest open interest in March was at the $75,000 and $125,000 call strikes.
What should Bitcoin traders focus on next?
The labor data were not without caveats. The largest pay reductions were concentrated in a small number of sectors, including health care and the federal government, where the report reported strike activity along with information.
This raises the possibility that some of the weakness reflects temporary distortions rather than a large-scale collapse in employment.
Still, investors are unlikely to continue waiting for full transparency. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, said the U.S. economy has lost jobs since April 2025.
He said total employment growth from May 2025 to February 2026 is now -19,000, with businesses not hiring amid headwinds and uncertainty and even health care starting to slow down.
The next phase for Bitcoin will depend on whether the labor shock proves to be temporary or marks the beginning of a broader economic slowdown.
Much of that discussion will focus on the next wave of inflation trends and the Fed’s response. The February 2026 US CPI, due on March 11, will be central to the question of whether inflation is easing fast enough to offset labor market weakness.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18 will then decide how investors interpret the jobs report as noise or the beginning of a more meaningful deterioration.
After that, the next job report on April 3rd will be the confirmation test.
So far, the message from this weekend’s decline was clear. Bitcoin’s decline below $70,000 reflects a wide range of macro factors, including slowing growth, persistent wage pressures, rising oil prices, and a market that still treats Bitcoin as one of the first liquid assets sold when uncertainty rises.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
