Although Bitcoin has rebounded, the setup remains bearish. Bitcoin prices soared to a local high of around $76,000 on March 17th, before plummeting to around $68,690 by March 19th. Since that low, the price has recovered nearly 3% and is sitting at over $70,700 at the time of writing.
This rebound shows short-term strength. But you may also be setting your next move lower. The risk becomes clearer when both structural and macro conditions are considered together.
Bitcoin rebound is building a right shoulder, not a breakout
On the 8-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, a structure that usually suggests a downside. The head was constructed for nearly $76,000, and the left shoulder was constructed in early March. The current bounce is shaping the right shoulder.
Therefore, continuous efforts are important. Bitcoin has entered the resistance zone between $70,800 and $72,800, and an extension towards $73,500 is still possible. Rejection within this range can complete the right shoulder.
$BTC Price structure: TradingView
The structure becomes bullish only if Bitcoin cleanly regains $76,000.
On the downside, the neckline is under $68,600. Falling below this level can cause failure. Simply put, the higher this bounce goes without breaking above $76,000, the more complete the bearish setup becomes.
$BTC–DXY model shows why bounce still exists
Despite the bearish structure, Bitcoin continues to rise. BeInCrypto’s own $BTC–DXY cycle model helps explain this.
On an 8-hour time frame, the correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is once again just below zero. Even mild negative correlations have historically supported upside. A similar situation appeared in late February, when Bitcoin rose nearly 17% after the correlation turned negative.
However, the current cycle is weakening. Rather than being significantly negative, the correlation remains close to zero. This means that Bitcoin is not fully responsive to dollar strength. It operates on internal momentum rather than strong macro coordination.
This macro context is consistent with Bitget CEO Gracy Chen’s comments:
“Markets are no longer responsive to policy decisions alone. Rising energy costs, delayed easing expectations, and a strong dollar are creating a more selective investment environment, making it difficult to maintain a broad risk appetite.”
In this environment, even if the correlation turns slightly negative, Bitcoin could rise further. However, this movement is less stable and relies heavily on short-term momentum. If the correlation rises above zero again, as it did in early March, the likelihood of another correction increases rapidly.
Positioning and earnings suggest selling pressure may return
Derivatives markets are already tilted toward downside risk.
About Binance $BTC For indefinite periods (7-day positioning), the short leverage is approximately $1.93 billion, while the long leverage is approximately $711 million. This means that the short position is approximately 2.7 times larger than the long position.
Liquidation Map with Short Leverage: Coinglass
This imbalance suggests traders are bracing for a decline. At the same time, on-chain data shows that the profit level remains high.
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL), a metric that measures paper profit and loss, has fallen to 0.22 from around 0.27 on March 16th, but this is still well above February’s low of around 0.14. Even after the correction, most of the market remains profitable. This is important because even if profits rise, a decline in confidence often leads to selling. And the bearish positioning by Binance Liquidation Map confirms weakening conviction.
NUPL concerns: Glassnode
This setting directly reflects the broader liquidity situation following the Fed’s announcement that it would keep interest rates unchanged due to inflation concerns. Chen added:
“While the near-term pressure on Bitcoin following the announcement reflects tighter liquidity conditions, financial institutions’ positioning remains highly sensitive to changes in inflation data and geopolitical stability. Should energy pressures ease or macro data soften, funds could move quickly back into rare assets and stronger crypto exposure.”
This is the important connection. Tight liquidity tends to strengthen DXY, drawing capital away from risky assets like Bitcoin.
- Few participants can continue purchasing
- Rally struggles to extend
- Breakouts often fail
The current structure reflects just that. Bitcoin is rebounding, but the move lacks the strength needed to break through key resistance levels.
What this means for Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture. In the short term, the rebound could extend towards $72,000-$73,500, supported by modest negative correlation and short-term positioning. per day $BTC/USDT Liquidation data shows that the market is still looking for a continued rebound. If you look at the seven-day positioning mentioned above, the pattern changes.
$BTC Liquidation Map”>
$BTC Liquidation Map: Coin Glass
However, the broader structure remains bearish below $76,000.
A break below $67,800 would confirm the head-and-shoulders pattern and open the way to $61,800, a drop of around 8%, according to the head-to-neckline forecast.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
In this environment, the rebound is real, but it is occurring under conditions of tighter liquidity. Without stronger inflows, a pullback is more likely to complete a bearish pattern than start a sustained recovery, as NUPL is still rising.
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