Bitcoin price has been on a steady recovery over the past few weeks, with several attempts to break the $74,000 level consistently. However, the top cryptocurrency still seems to be lost in the noise of ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Conflicts in the Middle East have been a major talking point in global financial markets, and commentary on the US midterm elections has taken a backseat in recent weeks. Here’s a look at how the US midterm elections could affect Bitcoin price performance in the coming months.
BTC Activity Is Historically Weak During a Midterm Election Year
In a new Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research takes a deep dive into the outlook for BTC, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, in the current US political environment. After analyzing historical performance in midterm election years, the firm found that market leaders typically experience weak activity during this period.
According to XWIN Research, this bearish pattern is due to increased uncertainty in U.S. markets and reduced risk appetite in anticipation of the midterm elections. Investors typically reduce their exposure to financial markets as elections approach, resulting in lower liquidity and downward price pressure.
During the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections, the price of Bitcoin fell more than 60% before rebounding more than 50% within 12 months. While these moves seem very significant when viewed individually, it is important to note that these election years often coincide with bear seasons in the four-year cycle.
Source: CryptoQuant
In its Bitcoin price performance forecast for 2026, XWIN Research paints three scenarios for the top cryptocurrency. The first scenario is a bearish scenario, featuring a short-term rally around April and May triggered by expectations about the CLARITY Act.
In the second scenario, XWIN Research expects post-election clarity to improve sentiment as capital flows into BTC Exchange-Trade Funds and general market participation resumes. In this “recovery-neutral” case, the Bitcoin price could rise to the $75,000-$95,000 range and gradually reach higher highs, the analyst firm assumed.
In the third and final scenario, regulatory clarity and favorable election results appear to be driving strong inflows into the market. As market participation increases, the flagship cryptocurrency could return to the $90,000-$120,000 range.
The XWIN study concluded:
In conclusion, the mid-year is defined not only by price declines but also by reduced liquidity and participation. If this pattern holds, 2026 will likely see a weak period before the election and a recovery afterwards.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $70,400, with no significant changes over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image of DALL-E, chart by TradingView
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