Bitcoin rose above $70,000, briefly reaching $74,000 before breaking above the upper end of its February-March trading range.
On-chain data shows that the asset has moved beyond a dense accumulation cluster that formed between $59,000 and $72,000. However, it has recently returned below the upper limit, even though the daily chart has not arrived yet.
Will $82,000 be next?
According to Glassnode’s latest findings, the UTXO realized price distribution shows that this zone contains a significant share of recently acquired supply, with its clearance pushing Bitcoin into relatively illiquid territory between $72,000 and $82,000, suggesting limited prior accumulation reduces short-term resistance. While the recent breakout most likely defines a short-term range, broader market indicators make it clear that this move does not yet support a structural change.
The supply-to-earnings ratio indicator has risen to around 60%, consistent with the early recovery stages seen in previous cycles, but still below the long-term average of around 75%, which typically indicates bull market conditions. At the same time, high-value short-term holders realized profits, which recently reached $18.4 million per hour. This indicates continued sell-side pressure that the market must absorb to sustain higher levels.
Glassnode explained that sustaining the price above $70,000 while digesting this profit-taking increases the likelihood of further upside toward levels such as the true market average near $78,000 and the top of the current range near $82,000.
Additionally, off-chain data reflects improved demand conditions. For example, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF allocations have rebounded after a period of outflow amid renewed institutional participation. However, open interest in CME futures remains low, indicating that the current price increase is driven by spot demand rather than leveraged positioning. Although this trend has historically been associated with more stable market conditions, a stable upward trend typically requires an increase in both capital inflows and derivatives exposure.
The strengthening of buyer activity is evidenced by spot market indicators, with major exchanges’ cumulative volume delta turning into net buyers from sustained seller-side pressure, and Coinbase’s flows stabilizing and trending upward.
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sustained bearish bet
In the derivatives market, negative perpetual financing rates indicate a concentration of short positions, which has contributed to the recent rally through short covering. Options data further points to a shift to a more balanced structure, with implied volatility falling and demand for downside protection eventually easing and call buying gradually increasing.
On the other hand, negative gamma exposure concentrated around the $75,000 level may continue to influence price behavior in the near term, amplifying any upward movement through dealer hedging flows. Grass node added,
“While this positioning backdrop suggests further upside support may be possible in the near term, a sustained trend is likely to require continued capital inflows and broader expansion of leverage and conviction.”
