Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a special moment. And miners are exhibiting a level of turnover inactivity not often seen in previous cycles.
At the time of publishing this article (March 24, 2026), the Minor Position Index (MPI) is approximately -1.04. One of the lowest values from 2016 to 2026. Additionally, this is the third time in the aforementioned period that the 30-day moving average has approached the -1 threshold.
“These declines in MPI levels indicate that miners are transferring significantly fewer coins than usual compared to the annual average,” explained Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, a specialist at on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant.
This metric measures the relationship between: The amount of Bitcoin that miners send to the market and its annual average. More directly, it compares today’s sales to a typical year’s sales.
For example, if on average a miner sends 1,000 BTC every day and is currently sending only 400 BTC. This indicator will reflect a significant decrease in selling pressure.
If MPI drops to extremely negative values like it is now, This means that miners sell much less than usual.
“In other words, miners’ selling pressure is structurally low, suggesting they are hoarding rewards, expecting prices to rise, or both,” the analyst added.
The graph allows you to better understand the historical movement of this indicator and its relationship with the price of Bitcoin.
As you can see, the black line represents the price of BTC and the blue line corresponds to MPI. One shows the daily value of the indicator, and the other shows the 30-day and 200-day moving averages, which help smooth out volatility.
The red circle indicates the moment when the indicator reaches an extremely negative level, close to or below -1. These time points coincide with episodes of stress in the mining sector or in the post-surrender event phase.
If we look at past episodes where MPI has fallen to levels around -1 or below, we can see that BTC was passing through areas of weakness or transition, but not always reaching the exact bottom.
It happened in 2015-2016 and also in late 2022-early 2023. In both cases, this indicator coincided with mining stress and low selling pressure, but the price recovery subsequently occurred when MPI began to rise. This suggests that there is a relationship with moments of bearish fatigue. However, it does not serve as an accurate minimum signal.
“Historically, such extreme levels usually appear after periods of stress or a mine surrender phase, but do not accurately indicate a price floor,” Moreno de Vicente said.
A related pattern is that the market floor usually does not correspond exactly to these extreme values of MPI. Instead, they tend to form when indicators begin to recover from their depressed levels. “The absence of sales by miners removes the structural impediment, but it alone is not enough to cause a price reversal,” the analyst explained.
Historical behavior of Bitcoin miners will change
the fact that Declining Bitcoin sales by miners can be interpreted as a positive sign. In fact, by reducing supply to the market, you eliminate one of the constant sales streams that have historically influenced prices.
However, this indicator has important limitations. It does not measure who is buying.
“MPI knows the relative sales trends, but it doesn’t show who is absorbing that supply. Without increased demand, it cannot sustain the rise on its own,” Moreno de Vicente warned.
Adding to this scenario is the possibility of structural changes in the sector’s business models. Xapo Bank, a financial institution focused on Bitcoin and digital asset services, offers: The historical behavior of miners may be changing.
“The old pattern of mining capitulation no longer makes sense. In 2026, miners will no longer rely solely on the price of BTC to sustain their operations,” said the agency, founded by Argentine technology entrepreneur Wenceslao Casares.
They explain that some in the sector are diversifying their income towards computing for artificial intelligence (AI), which could reduce the need to sell BTC in times of pressure. “Miners are no longer obliged to sell their reserves to cover their costs. Now that they have an additional source of income, they can work with holders rather than forced sellers,” they argued from Xapo Bank.
In that sense, even events such as the nearly 15% drop in hashrate last week can be interpreted differently. “This adjustment is not a reversal, but an optimization. Miners are evolving towards diverse data centers,” they claim.
Current MPI levels raise important questions. Is it a sign of strength or a silent warning?
On the other hand, low selling pressure from miners is a factor that has historically favored BTC prices. On the other hand, past behavior shows that this situation in itself does not define the beginning of an uptrend.
“If the MPI starts to recover from these levels, the signal becomes even more significant, pointing to a reinvigoration of the economy in parallel with improving market conditions,” Moreno de Vicente concluded.
For now, the data reflects a market with less structural selling pressure. But determining the next direction still depends on other factors.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
