The war conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran that began on February 28, 2026 will force a fundamental change in the White House’s economic strategy. According to a recent analysis by Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, developments in the battle “could further tie the U.S. stock market to national security considerations.”
This means that under Donald Trump’s administration, stock price stability on Wall Street is no longer seen solely as a money issue. However, as an important part of the country’s defense and political survival.
Washington considers the attack a military success, but The economic cost outweighs the victory on the battlefield.. Analysts at BitMEX said: “While the war was successful in some respects, with Iran’s most prominent politicians removed, it is proving difficult economically.”
Those killed in the bombing of a government complex in Tehran included former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Laryani, and top military officials, including Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Pakpour.
In retaliation for the attack, Iran bombed military and oil facilities in countries including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, and closed the Strait of Hormuz. this is Sea routes important to the global oil industry It connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. These measures reduced oil and gas exports from the Gulf, causing prices to rise.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices soared to $120 a barrel on March 8, a price not reached since 2022. BitMEX is causing what it describes as a “catastrophic energy crisis”.
This situation threatens a “catastrophic impact on the affordability crisis,” a scenario in which significant increases in energy and transportation costs make it difficult for families to pay for basic goods and services.
It is precisely this blow to the domestic economy, and in some cases the US stock market, that galvanizes President Trump’s political response, whose strategy is dominated by a very specific pattern of reaction to financial crises.
Stock market as part of American security
This action by the President follows a pattern that BitMEX calls “TACO” (Trump always runs away or “Trump always flinches”). This is a concept that describes the president’s tendency to reverse commercial or military threats that cause stock market declines.
According to currency analysts, it is likely that: President Trump worries that falling stock prices will damage his image of success As economic problems worsen, a sudden easing of tensions is forced.
“After posting messages inciting escalation, on Monday, March 23, 2026, President Trump made a surprising post on Truth Social stating that he was in productive talks with Iran and was postponing military attacks on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days,” the report said.
As CriptoNoticias reported on Monday, President Trump suggested that the United States and Iran had a “very positive and productive” dialogue. However, fighting continues, with Iranian bombings in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. Meanwhile, Israel has responded by bombing Iran’s military infrastructure.
In this regard, the exchange questioned the timing of the official announcement, saying, “Why does it take five days? Friday is still five days away. Mr. Trump could have said he would postpone the attack until the closing bell of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday afternoon.”
Ceasefire terms between Iran and the US
While this is happening, there is a growing rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. Iran received a 15-point proposal from the United States through Pakistan. aimed at paving the way for a ceasefire.
However, the Iranian embassy in South Africa today, March 25, laid out conditions for ending the war in the country. It includes specific guarantees to halt aggression and prevent renewed war.
Regardless of the truth or falsehood of the talks, the BitMEX report argues that “Mr. Trump does not appear to be prioritizing the Iranian people, Israel’s national security, the security situation in the Gulf, the oil supply issue in Asia, or the price crisis in his own country. Only the U.S. stock market trumps all of this. Mr. Trump seems to want to calm the market for a week to buy time.”
According to BitMEX, this period will be “a time to rethink military strategy, replenishment, or, perhaps most skeptically, a time to rethink financial market strategy.”
Institutional intervention and the future of Bitcoin
The company suggests that “one strategy could be to try to manipulate financial markets to win the war. This could include increased cooperation between the national security apparatus and the American financial sector. Perhaps the Department of the Army would exert greater influence over the Federal Reserve and institutional investors with the goal of mitigating the damage caused by Iran.”
In fact, Trump The Pentagon may seek to pressure the Fed to print money Or keep interest rates low and inject the necessary liquidity to artificially prop up stock prices in the face of war panic.
BitMEX predicts that if economic conditions worsen, the Pentagon and State Department will directly influence not only the Fed, but also the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and even BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.
The aim is to reduce the damage caused by Iran. Through coordinated purchases of assets and regulations that promote market appreciation.stabilize the stock market at all costs.
If this large-scale government intervention were to take place, there would be a liquidity overflow effect that would directly benefit digital assets. Although not mentioned in the analysis, Bitcoin is likely to be favored due to its close correlation with traditional markets. As stock prices rise due to state intervention, money has also flowed into digital currencies, with about $70,000 currently at stake.
This strategy requires a strong expansion of liquidity (printing money and cheap credit). Historically, Bitcoin has served as a haven against inflation and fiat currency collapses. As more dollars go into circulation to support Wall Street, the relative value of scarce assets like Bitcoin tends to rise..
Moreover, in a financial system where investment decisions can be subordinated to DoD interests; Bitcoin stands out as the only censorship-resistant and apolitical asset. Faced with the possibility of “authoritarian capitalism,” global capital may turn to BTC to secure sovereignty away from the direct control of US intelligence agencies.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
