Ethereum ($ETH) is trading at $2,135, 9% below its March high, as the post-up distribution phase unfolds on the daily chart.
The two on-chain signals are pointing in opposite directions. Whale wallets were sold to the peak, but the sharp decline in the supply of forex suggests that buyers are intervening at current levels.
Ethereum whale wallets will be distributed during March rally peak
Santiment data tracking wallet holding 100,000 to 1,000,000 pieces $ETH shows large holders steadily increasing their balances through mid-March as the price rises towards $2,370. This buying was the driving force behind the 21.44% recovery from the March 9 low of around $1,950.
The turning point came around March 21st. Once the price peaked, the Whale wallet balance plummeted along with the Ethereum balance. Prices drop from approximately $2,332 2,053 dollars in 2 days.
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Ethereum Whale Holdings. Source: Santiment
The simultaneous decline in both whale balances and prices confirms that these large holders were distributing rather than buying at the upper end of the bull market.
This distribution is directly responsible for the 13% correction annotated on the price chart. This sale was not a panic liquidation. It was a deliberate withdrawal by large wallets at high prices.
buy $ETH still the dominant emotion
Despite the whale-led decline, exchange supply data reveals a strong rebound. Approximately 870,000 people from March 21st to 22nd $ETH Withdrawal from all exchanges – total exchange supply decreased from approximately 8.12 million to 7.29 million $ETH.
This equates to approximately $1.8 billion. $ETH Moved from the exchange. Coins leaving the exchange indicate purchase intent. Holders who are withdrawing for self-storage do not intend to sell immediately.
Ethereum exchange balance. Source: Santiment
This divergence is the core of the short-term problem. The whale wallet was sold. A separate group of buyers simultaneously withdrew $1.43 billion from the exchange. The ultimate impact on prices will depend on which forces become dominant over the next few days.
$ETH Noteworthy price range
Ethereum price is slightly above the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement at $2,027. This level has provided support in the previous two tests and is the last meaningful floor before $1,928. If the closing price for the day exceeds $2,148, $ETH with much-needed support
$ETH Price analysis. Source: TradingView
Adding weight to the floor case, Glassnode’s net realized P&L data shows approximately +$380 million, the single largest positive value for the entire period ending March 23rd. After six weeks of mostly red bars, this jump means buyers are realizing the gains.
Ethereum net realized profit or loss. Source: Glassnode
To undo your modifications, $ETH Daily closing price must exceed $2,148. This results in $ETH We aim to recover from the recent 13% correction towards $2,350. The $1.43 billion foreign exchange withdrawal is a buying factor for that move. Whether it arrives this week will depend on whether the $2,027 Fibonacci floor survives further testing.
On the other hand, if this buy quickly turns into a sell, Ethereum price could eventually lose the support at $2,027. This pushes the altcoin king towards the next major support at $1,928, and a loss would invalidate the bullish thesis.
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