The Bitcoin market has been in a bearish phase for six months now. During this period, the top cryptocurrency hit a local low of $60,000, while holding the cycle high and current high at $126,000. In particular, renowned analyst Burak Kesmeci provided insights highlighting the key price levels that define the current market setup.
Bitcoin Is in Correction Range, But Downside Risk Remains – Details
Kesmeci pointed out in a March 27 QuickTake post that current price levels are 53% below Bitcoin’s all-time highs. The analyst explains that while this margin suggests a large loss, it is also consistent with the expected correction range of 40%-70%. However, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 bear markets experienced declines of 84% and 77%, respectively, indicating that a potential collapse still exists in the current cycle.
Meanwhile, on-chain cost-based data from major market participants provides additional insight into Bitcoin’s current position. As of March 24, 2026, the cost basis for a new whale, defined as a large holder holding a coin for less than 155 days, is approximately $82,800. This level acts as a significant resistance zone well above the current market price of $66,000, indicating that a large group of recent institutional buyers still remain underwater, limiting upside momentum as the price approaches this zone.
On the other hand, stronger support levels exist as Binance user deposit addresses maintain their cost base close to $58,900 and mining-related whale wallets remain slightly lower at $55,900.
Further supporting this structure, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis map as of March 26 highlights a consistent pattern of indirect resistance. The overall STH realized price is $86,900, with sub-cohorts such as the 1M-3M group $82,600 and the 3M-6M group $96,000. Additionally, the 365-day simple moving average is $97,700. These levels form a tight cluster of resistance that Bitcoin must overcome to signal a meaningful trend reversal.
In contrast, the only nearby resistance currently in play is the STH 1W–1M price at $70,100, which remains above the current price level. The bottom realized price of $54,300 continues to act as macro support and marks an important threshold for the long-term market structure.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,012 on the daily chart, reflecting a loss of 4.21%. Meanwhile, trading volume increased 17.29%, reaching $45.68 billion. Kesmeci’s analysis shows that all major cost clusters are ahead. Bitcoin needs to clear all of these levels successfully to confirm a change in market direction. Therefore, there are likely to be no signs of a bullish reversal or new higher price levels to consider until there is a decisive bounce of $86,900.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
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