Over the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has hovered between $60,000 and $74,000, suggesting that the direction the price moves out of this range could determine which direction the overall market takes next. After already falling more than 45%, all eyes are now on when the pioneering cryptocurrency will make a new bottom. So far the uptrend has held up surprisingly well, but there is still a ‘line in the sand’ that prices must not cross.
Bitcoin Macro Structure Still Bullish
Currently, Bitcoin price is still well above its 200-week moving average, which is very bullish for the price, according to cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Patel. The reason goes back to past market cycles when the 200-week moving average was a key level to hold or beat.
Investigating past cycles, Crypto Patel explained that Bitcoin price was able to remain above the 200-week moving average in 2015. As a result, there was a major rally in the subsequent bull market that saw the price of Bitcoin rally towards $20,000.
Then, in 2019, the same 200-week moving average remained firmly in place, and the resulting bull market continued to peak at $69,000 in 2021. Despite the price plummeting below $20,000 for the third time in 2023, Bitcoin remained above its 200-week moving average, and the rally was rewarded when the price reached $126,000 in 2025.
Taking these trends into account, it becomes clear that Bitcoin price above the 200 week MA is bullish and likewise falling below it is bearish. This is why it is important for the bulls to maintain this level.
BTC price should not fall below $59,000.
According to the analyst’s post, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is currently $59,000. This immediately puts you at a level where you can defend yourself against bulls. As Crypto Patel explained, as long as the Bitcoin price remains above this level, ‘any drop is a gift.’ This means that it could be a buying opportunity.
If we respect historical trends, holding the 200W MA means that Bitcoin price will hit a new all-time high sometime in 2028. “Macro structures remain optimistic. Don’t let near-term fears sway you,” the analyst warns.
Alternatively, a drop below this 200-week moving average could be disastrous for Bitcoin. Because this means that cryptocurrencies have now officially entered bear market territory. It could also lead to more downside and send the cryptocurrency lower before a bottom is established.
Featured image by Dall.E, chart by TradingView.com
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