Bitcoin may have already priced in the impact of monetary tightening, leaving the stock more exposed to recent macroeconomic shocks, according to asset manager Bitwise.
The company’s comments come as the cryptocurrency has fallen more than 23.7% since the beginning of the year and continues to correct below $70,000.
Geopolitical instability and energy disruption, particularly from the U.S.-Iran conflict that is clogging the Strait of Hormuz, have driven up oil and gas prices in recent weeks. The surge put pressure on inflation expectations and caused markets to back off earlier bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Calci have gone from almost certain to doubtful that the Fed will cut rates this year. Traders are currently pricing in a probability of no rate cut at all, ranging from less than 3% to nearly 40%.
“Energy prices remain closely tied to inflation expectations,” said Luke Deans, senior research fellow at Bitwise. “The recent rally has led to meaningful changes in monetary policy pricing, with previously expected Federal Reserve rate cuts this year largely reversing expectations for another tightening.”
Stock prices have also started to fall in response, with the S&P 500 index down nearly 8% in the past month, but Bitwise claims that Bitcoin has already corrected. Cryptocurrencies have been declining since October 2025, reflecting their sensitivity to liquidity and investors’ risk appetite.
“Bitcoin is a highly reflexive, liquidity-sensitive asset that typically reacts quickly to changes in risk appetite,” Deans said. This suggests that digital assets have begun to reflect tougher financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets. Relative metrics further strengthen this dynamic. ”
Deans said the Mayer multiple, a measure that compares Bitcoin’s spot price to its 200-day average, has been hovering in the lower percentile of its historical range since January. it suggests $BTC It has already endured a widespread reset of expectations.
In contrast, stocks “started the year at high valuation levels, but have only recently begun to appreciate as macro conditions deteriorated,” he said.
“Historically, assets that have experienced significant valuation compression tend to be less downside sensitive as leverage and speculative positioning are gradually removed,” Deans told CoinDesk. “Alternatively, markets trading closer to cyclical highs often retain greater vulnerability to negative macro catalysts.”
In the field of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s dominance is tightening the market structure. Bitwise points out that correlations across altcoins are spiking, noting that the single-factor environment is being driven by: $BTCis the price.
