Ethereum opens Q2 2026 trading above $2.1 million, still well below the levels needed to signal a meaningful trend reversal. After a brutal first quarter, $ETH Having lost about a third of its value since its late 2025 highs, the question heading into the new quarter is whether the asset can finally find footing or whether there is room for further selling pressure.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
The descending channel on the daily chart remains fully intact into April. $ETH It continues to make new highs below the 100-day moving average (about $24,000) and the 200-day moving average (about $3,000). The $2.4,000 resistance band definitively rejected the asset after the February lows. This reinforces that this region is an important supply zone that should be cleared before making a bullish case.
The $1.8,000 support level remains an important lower bound. It held up during the February capitulation and has since been tested again without collapsing on a closing price basis. Below that, $1.5,000 is the next meaningful level.
Additionally, the RSI is hovering around the mid-50s, reflecting some stabilization, but not enough to change the overall trend. Therefore, a sustained daily closing price above $2.4,000 remains the minimum threshold that buyers should aim for in order to change their price action regime.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
In a shorter period, $ETH It has been trading within a falling wedge pattern since its rejection at $24,000 in mid-March. The price is currently above $2.1,000 after breaking out of the upper limit of the pattern over the past few days. The RSI is now in the low 70s, its highest level since its peak in March, and the market is likely to move higher in the short term.
RSI levels are worth watching closely. This momentum suggests a likely retest of the $230,000-$240,000 resistance zone. This is the important daily level just above it and already rejected. $ETH Once recently. A clean break above this level would be a positive medium-term signal. However, if the bullish momentum cannot be sustained, the market could once again fall towards the key support zone at $1.8,000.
On-chain analysis
Ethereum exchange reserves decrease to approximately 14.9 million $ETH. This is the lowest level recorded in the past year, and the indicator continues its sharply accelerated decline in late 2025 and into 2026. The drawdown from the mid-2025 peak is around 21 million. $ETH Steep and consistent. Reflects the continued trend of holders exiting $ETH From exchange to self-storage.
Similar to Bitcoin, a decline in foreign exchange reserves reduces readily available sell-side supply, but this is structurally positive in the medium term. However, the same caution applies. Reserves are declining in parallel with prices, rather than ahead of recovery.
If the supply-side situation is improving, but without a meaningful recovery in demand as evidenced by significant levels of price recovery or an upward trend in aggregate on-chain activity, reserves data may be better interpreted as a foundation that is quietly being built rather than a catalyst in itself.
