Capriol Investments, an investment and financial analysis firm, warned on April 2, 2026 that the Bitcoin (BTC) market is already applying a 24% discount to its fair value. This is also based on the impending arrival of the so-called Q-day, the day when quantum computers will be able to break the Bitcoin network’s current encryption.
The warning from the company’s founder, Charles Edwards, comes just over a month after he released a report on February 20 this year warning that the fair value of digital assets was already falling by 20%. Meanwhile, the CriptoNoticias report explained that the risks justify lowering the fair price from $120,000 to $96,000 per Bitcoin.
Edwards said that unless improvements are implemented in algorithms that are resilient to quantum computing, Bitcoin’s discount rate could reach up to 40% in 2027 and 60% in 2028. This is because, according to their calculations, it takes about two years for network updates to roll out to the majority of users. The focus is on vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s signature system, ECDSA, which requires approximately 2,300 logical qubits to be compromised using Shor’s algorithm.
Impact on Bitcoin price and pros and cons
On March 30, 2026, Google published a report claiming that a quantum computer could derive a Bitcoin wallet’s private key in about less than 10 minutes. In response to this revelation, Mr. Edwards emphasized that he had warned: Markets have already priced in quantum risk and called for a Bitcoin upgrade in 2026to avoid affecting its value.
“This is a timeline I’ve been talking about for a long time. “This is why I’ve been saying for the last year that we have to upgrade Bitcoin in 2026. This means there is broad consensus within Bitcoin Core to allow for a two-year implementation schedule,” Edwards said via X.
Some disagree with Mr. Capriol’s vision. For example, CoinShares commented that only 10,200 BTC, less than 0.05% of the supply, faces immediate and real risk, arguing that the alarm is overblown. Their estimates ensure that any analysis where more than 25% of the supply is “at risk” typically includes temporary exposures or exposures that can be mitigated through good practices such as avoiding address reuse.
However, despite active community discussion, our paper concludes that: There is still time to make the transition, but advances in quantum computing will make that time increasingly shorter, he warned.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
