The European Central Bank (ECB) has published its inflation forecast for the euro area for the second quarter of 2026. Inflation is expected to reach 3.1% year-on-year during this period.
According to this estimate, the driving force behind the rise is primarily energyThis is because the energy component of HICP (Harmonized Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation in the euro area) will go from -1.4% in 2025 to +6.2% in 2026. A correction of 7.6 percentage points will push down the rest of the index.
However, overall inflation is expected to slow to 2.7% in the second half of this year, according to a recent ECB document.
Meanwhile, the inflation rate announced on March 31, 2026 was 2.5% compared to the previous year.
The ECB sees the immediate causes of this move as follows: Middle East wars caused oil and gas prices to soar. As CriptoNoticias reports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil production passes, will increase the cost of oil (and therefore transportation, industrial production, supply chains in various sectors, etc.).
In the chart below, you can see how barrels of Brent crude oil have appreciated over the past 12 months.
Considering this panoramathe ECB has decided to keep interest rates unchanged: deposit rates will remain at 2%the standard for major refinancing operations is 2.15%, and the marginal loan facility is 2.40%. The pause came after a monetary easing cycle in which the ECB cut interest rates by 200 basis points through eight consecutive adjustments since June 2025.
The logic behind doing nothing is uncertainty. Changes in interest rates risk exacerbating one of the two problems, as energy increases inflation while the same factors reduce growth.
This is not good news considering the price of Bitcoin (BTC). Not lowering interest rates means that the cost of money does not fall, and therefore less capital flows into investment. For this reason, the market usually interprets non-rate cuts (mainly by major financial powers such as the European Union and the United States) as a bearish factor for digital currency prices.
(Tag translation) Spain
