Bitcoin rose along with the rest of the crypto market on Monday after President Donald Trump struck a mixed note on a potential deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a rebound of relief that sent prices higher but left the overall market structure unresolved.
According to crypto slate According to the data, the largest cryptocurrency briefly rose above $70,000 before falling back to around $69,500. With this, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.5 trillion, an 11-day high.
The move followed two conflicting messages from Trump over the weekend. In a post on Truth Social, he warned that Iran “will live in hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. But in a subsequent interview on Fox News, he said Iran was “currently negotiating” and there was a “good chance” a deal could be reached within 24 hours.
Notably, President Trump initially gave Iran a 10-day grace period to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His latest comments signaled that Tehran had until Tuesday to threaten U.S. attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges unless the waterway was reopened.
At the same time, his comments on negotiations open the possibility, albeit tentatively, that the conflict could move toward diplomacy rather than an immediate escalation.
That was enough to lift market sentiment, which had been heavily tilted toward caution after more than a month of war, rising oil prices and growing concerns about widespread economic damage.
Cryptocurrency traders responded to the prospect by raising prices across the market, but Monday’s moves were not a decisive break from the patterns that have defined trading since the dispute began.
Why this Bitcoin rally is still fragile
The latest rally pushed Bitcoin back to the top of the band that has capped every major rally and decline since the war began. This move was sharp enough to indicate that the positioning had become too bearish, but not strong enough to establish a new trend.
BRN Research Director Timothy Michiel said: crypto slate BTC price movement remains subdued, with the digital asset still trapped in a wide range of $60,000 to $70,000.
Julian Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, corroborated this view, pointing out that Bitcoin continues to try to establish itself in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. He explained that the current zone is supported by historical highs, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, and the token’s deviation from the power law curve.
That view applies to the current tape. Bitcoin has rallied towards the upper end of its five-week war range, but the broader structure remains unchanged. The roughly $65,000 to $73,000 channel that has shaped recent price action remains intact, making today’s rebound look more like a set range recovery than the start of a clean breakout.
Timmer also pointed out that changes in the flow of goods traded on exchanges help explain why Bitcoin reacted so quickly when the geopolitical atmosphere eased. He said that when Bitcoin peaked last October, the tide shifted away from Bitcoin and toward gold.
Now, these trends are starting to reverse as gold has lost some momentum and Bitcoin is starting to regain its footing. According to him, gold is starting to behave like Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is starting to behave like gold.
This provides a clearer context for the gathering. Bitcoin does not operate in isolation from the macro environment, nor does it trade like an asset completely immune to the pressures of war on risk markets.
It responds to the same combination of shifts in sentiment, positioning and expectations that have shaped trading between oil, stocks and broader assets since the conflict escalated.
Monday’s rally therefore hinged on changes in headlines rather than clear changes in the market’s underlying strength.
The move was strong enough to unwind shorts and push Bitcoin back to the upper end of the range, but not enough to erase doubts about whether the market can sustain these gains if ceasefire talks stall or oil prices resume rising.
If the dispute drags on, $10,000 could still be recovered.
On the other hand, this BTC rally did not rule out a more severe downside situation that has been building around the top crypto as the war drags on.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone argued that Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 as early as 2026 if the macro environment deteriorates further.
McGlone said Bitcoin may be returning to its most actively traded territory since futures trading began in 2017, even as it faces a market now crowded with alternative tokens and increasingly dominated by the growth of dollar-backed stablecoins.
He linked the downside case to the risk of a stock market reversal and a new rise in volatility, putting Bitcoin under further pressure if macro stress intensifies.
While this scenario is still well above the range suggested by Monday’s price action, it has not been invalidated by a single bailout rally.
crypto slate He previously reported that a prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran, a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or a widespread regional war strong enough to push oil prices from $150 to $200 a barrel could cause global liquidity to tighten even more sharply, causing stock prices to fall by more than 30%.
Under these circumstances, the $10,000 case no longer looks like a extreme outlier, but rather a stress scenario that the market needs to consider more seriously.
Misir also supports caution, noting that the same markets that could rise on headlines suggesting progress in negotiations are still under pressure from war, oil and declining risk appetite.
If the diplomatic opening fades and the energy shock worsens, it will become harder to protect the support that pushed Bitcoin higher earlier in the week.
Notably, oil remains central to that calculation. Oil prices rose towards $112 a barrel on Monday morning as the war and unrest around Hormuz fueled concerns about supply and inflation. The Kobeisi letter estimates that if this level continues for another seven weeks, U.S. CPI inflation could rise to about 3.7%.
According to Mr. Misil,
“Inflation risks remain, policy flexibility is limited and shocks need to be absorbed by growth.”
Against this backdrop, Misir concluded that BTC’s next move will depend on inflation data and the Federal Reserve.
He explained that the upcoming FOMC meeting and the CPI index will show whether policymakers believe inflation remains manageable after the oil crisis, or whether the war has reinforced expectations that rate cuts will not materialize.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
