Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, outlined the long-term case for Bitcoin to exceed $1 million.
In a recent interview, he said this result is not an optimistic development, but a conservative scenario. His discussion focuses on the evolution of Bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold. More importantly, he links that future value to broader changes in the global store of value market.
Important points
- Matt Hogan predicts that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million if it gains a decent share of the growing $40 trillion global store of value market.
- Bitcoin’s current market share is 4-5%, or about $1.4 trillion, while gold’s market share is $38 trillion.
- Historical market growth rates (up to 12.5% annually since 2004) support his long-term bullish scenario.
- Adoption by institutional investors is increasing, with large investors such as Spot Bitcoin ETF, Harvard University and Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund entering the market.
- Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has decreased, making it more attractive as a stable long-term store of value.
Market growth drives valuation outlook
To support his thesis, Hogan highlighted the size and evolution of the global store of value market, currently valued at approximately $40 trillion. Of this, gold accounts for approximately $38 trillion and Bitcoin accounts for approximately $1.4 trillion.
Bitcoin currently accounts for about 4% to 5% of this market. This percentage corresponds to a current price of nearly $70,000, according to simple valuation logic.
But Hogan emphasized that this static snapshot doesn’t tell the whole story. More importantly, the overall market itself has been steadily expanding over time.
He pointed out that in 2004, when gold ETFs were introduced, the market value was about $2.5 trillion. Since then, it has grown at an annual rate of approximately 12.5%.
If this trend continues until 2035, the overall market size will increase significantly. In that case, Bitcoin would only need a 15% share to reach $1 million. If the 30% share grows, its value could approach $2 million.
This perspective shifts the focus from static comparisons to a dynamic and growing market environment.
Long-term returns and short-term expectations
Given these assumptions, Hogan called his outlook relatively conservative. This forecast relies on a continuation of historical growth rather than accelerated expansion or extreme adoption scenarios.
As a result, he suggested, Bitcoin could deliver nearly a 20x return over 10 years. At the same time, it tempered expectations for rapid profit growth in the short term.
In contrast, he cited decentralized finance projects as an area where higher short-term profits could emerge. Still, he argued that Bitcoin’s strength lies in its long-term stability, not its rapid price increases.
Institutional implementation strengthens market structure
Alongside the valuation model, Hogan highlighted important structural changes in the crypto market. Not long ago, there was a lack of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Today, these investment vehicles rank among the fastest growing ETFs.
This change coincided with an increase in institutional participation. For context, Harvard University’s endowment fund and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund have both gained exposure to Bitcoin.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has decreased. This trend is impacting the way professional investors approach allocation. It used to be about 1%, but more and more people are considering positions closer to 5%.
These developments suggest a maturing market and wider acceptance.
Risk and macro factors remain important factors
Despite the optimistic forecast, Hogan acknowledged that risks remain. If the pace of market growth slows, Bitcoin’s upside could be limited. Similarly, assets may struggle to capture a larger share of the store of value.
Still, he pointed to broader macroeconomic forces that could support demand. Rising global debt levels and concerns about currency depreciation could lead investors to turn to alternative assets.
In this context, Bitcoin’s position as a store of value is likely to become increasingly important.
Notably, Hogan’s current analysis is consistent with previous predictions. In 2023, he suggested that Bitcoin could reach over $1 million by 2032. More recently, he outlined a scenario in which prices could reach $6.5 million within 20 years.
A consistent theme emerges across these projections. Hogan continues to view Bitcoin as a direct competitor to gold within the global financial system.
