Simply put
- Bitcoin and broader financial markets rose on reports that the United States and Iran are discussing a possible ceasefire that could end the war.
- More than $200 million in cryptocurrency shorts were liquidated, four times the number of longs, a classic sign of a short squeeze.
- Analysts warned that the rise would depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. If it fails, Bitcoin could reach $60,000.
Bitcoin Broad financial markets rose in early trading in Asia and London on Monday after reports that a ceasefire could be negotiated between the United States and Iran.
The leading cryptocurrency hit a weekly high of $69,350 on Monday morning and is currently trading at $69,245, up 3.5% on the day, according to CoinGecko data. Oil prices have fallen 1.4% since Friday’s close, while the Nikkei Stock Average has risen 0.85% and the S&P 500 Futures Index has risen 0.64%. On the other hand, gold, a safe asset, is hovering around the break-even point.
This movement is Reuters Reports say the United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
around Reutersa potential framework for an end to hostilities and a ceasefire has been finalized by Pakistan, with all elements needed to be agreed by Monday. The initial agreement will be structured as a memorandum of understanding that will be finalized electronically through Pakistan, the only communication channel for negotiations.
The news follows US President Donald Trump’s vitriolic message posted on TruthSocial Sunday, in which he declared: “Tuesday in Iran will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day rolled into one. There’s no better day than this!!! Open the Straits, you crazy bastards, or you’ll live in hell – watch it!” Before concluding, “Praise be to Allah.”
short squeeze
“What contributed to the rise in the price of Bitcoin was not President Trump’s statements, but reports of ceasefire talks from Iran,” said Ekko Ahn, an analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research. decryption.
The analyst explained that the market no longer takes Trump’s comments at face value because he repeated his statements without substantive adjustment. “As a result, the market is now interpreting price movements using a combination of his statements and external behavioral signals.”
According to Coinglass data, more than $200 million in short crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, four times the number of long positions, suggesting a “textbook short squeeze,” said Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market formation firm Caladan. decryption. He said the market is poised for a reversal as market sentiment is in extreme fear.
He explained that the combination of these factors and Morgan Stanley’s launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF on April 8, with an expense ratio of 0.14%, lower than BlackRock IBIT’s 0.25% fee, also caused the price of Bitcoin to soar.
Despite the potential rise in risk assets, the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural concern.
“The reopening of Hormuz Island will collapse the oil risk premium and bring forward rate cut expectations, re-exploiting the entire equity-to-crypto risk curve,” Lim said. “First oil falls, then interest rates reprice, then risk assets rise.”
But he warned that a suspension without meaningful normalization of the Straits would “likely result in a rise in headlines that would dissipate within days.” The market has seen this pattern three times since late March. “Unless these numbers move significantly, rhetoric-based rallies will continue to sell,” Lim said.
Prediction Market Myriad Users (Owned) decryption Parent company Dastan reflects the uncertainty that remains. They are increasingly optimistic about a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with the probability of a ceasefire occurring in the first half of this year rising by more than 10% on this day, although it remains largely negative at 45%. The market for ships of 15 or more that had transited the Strait of Hormuz before May similarly became significantly more optimistic on the day, rising nearly 7% to 60%.
Currently, countless users have a 46% chance that Bitcoin’s next move will rise to $84,000, while the probability that oil will next move to $120 is seen as 83%.
Both analysts interviewed decryption He noted that a retest of $80,000 is possible, but much depends on the success of negotiations and confirmation of a ceasefire. However, if it fails, Bitcoin could fall to $60,000.
