William Blair says Coinbase’s 26% decline has largely “de-risked” the stock, and weak trades are pricing in a sharp rise. $USDC This introduction turns exchanges into a high-margin, cycle-resistant bet on the rising share of cryptocurrencies relative to fiat currencies.
Investment banker William Blair said Coinbase’s recent share price decline has effectively reset expectations, arguing that the roughly 26% drawdown from its first-quarter highs has “significantly de-risked” the stock as soft spots and derivatives volumes pile up. In a research note compiled by The Block and Investing.com, analysts said that “weak trading activity in early 2026 is fully reflected in valuations,” and that the company continues to view Coinbase as “the best way to participate in the growing market share of cryptocurrencies relative to the fiat economy.”
The bank highlights that Coinbase is steadily evolving into a “full-service trading platform,” noting that it builds derivatives, staking, DEX aggregation, 24/7 stock trading and prediction markets on top of the Base L2 infrastructure. This change is already tilting the business mix. Coinbase’s Q3 2025 shareholder letter reported that subscription and services revenue (including stablecoin revenue) was in the range of $710 million to $790 million for the quarter, although external estimates suggest trading fees currently account for less than half of total revenue.
What William Blair emphasizes most is stablecoins. The memo calls USD Coin’s continued growth a “core positive” and estimates that: $USDCThe company’s share of the dollar stablecoin market has increased from about 21% in 2024 to about 27% as it steadily gains ground with Tether’s USDT. KuCoin and CEX.IO data show $USDC The supply will surge by about 220% from the second half of 2023 to about $78 billion to $81 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026, the total stablecoin capitalization will reach a record high of $315 billion, with stablecoins currently accounting for about 75% of all cryptocurrency trading volume.
That growth directly impacts Coinbase’s revenue. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the exchange generated approximately $1.35 billion in profits. $USDCIn 2025, related income will amount to about 19% of total income, depending on the percentage of reserve interest and fees, and analysts at FinanceFeeds and CCN predict that this number could increase by a factor of 2-7 if applicable. $USDCBased payments and B2B payment rails continue to expand. Coinbase also holds a significant minority stake. $USDC As stablecoins expand to integrate merchants, payroll, and card networks, they will create “powerful economic linkages,” William Blair said.
William Blair’s January memo said the Circle was “positioned to ride the social wave”. $USDC “Commercialization,” he said, highlighting Visa’s decision to formally clear some U.S. card flows. $USDCnew integrations with Intuit and other enterprise software providers. The latest update reiterates that view, arguing: $USDC It will be integrated into Coinbase payment flows, on-chain treasuries, and tokenized real-world assets. $USDC Even under stricter US stablecoin rules, the revenue stream should be “more regular, more profitable, and less cyclical than transaction fees.”
On the macro side, the bank says a prolonged “crypto winter” is unlikely and frames the Coinbase setup as an “asymmetric upside” bet. If markets remain depressed, stablecoin and subscription revenues will continue to support the business, while a new bullish phase in Bitcoin and Ether volumes will add to an already improving revenue base. In that sense, $USDC’s rise in stablecoin market share from about a fifth to more than a quarter is not just about the technical details of on-chain plumbing. For Coinbase and Circle, it’s the backbone of the long-term stock story, argues William Blair.
