Bitcoin (BTC) made a notable recovery in April, rebounding from around $67,000 to $78,000. The main highlight of this move is that BTC successfully recovered the $73,700 level. According to MVRV price bands data, this area is acting as an important support base for the ongoing trend.
Bitcoin at a crossroads: Will it rise to $96,000 or fall to $55,000?
Market to Realized Value (MVRV) price bands are an on-chain framework that compares Bitcoin’s market price to its realized value, effectively identifying areas of overvaluation and undervaluation throughout the market cycle. Ali Martinez explains in the April 25th
Bitcoin $BTC It has successfully achieved the -0.5 MVRV price band, which currently stands at $73,700. This level is the pivot point for the current trend.
As long as $73,700 holds support, the goal is a return to the average, which is currently around $96,000.
Should Bitcoin lose… https://t.co/arxxFtwNtn pic.twitter.com/bt5dtAHwbT
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) April 25, 2026
Within this framework, the -0.5 band serves as a transitional support level. Staying above this level means the market is strengthening again and near-term downside risk is reducing. Martinez emphasizes that as long as BTC maintains support above $73,700, the next logical move would be a push towards the average MVRV level, currently located around $96,000.
However, the structure still remains conditional as any break below $73,700 would invalidate the current bullish bottom scenario. In this case, Bitcoin could face new selling pressure, and the next major downside target could be a realized price closer to $55,000. This level represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation and has historically served as strong macro support during corrections.
MVRV Price Status
Beyond the immediate, the MVRV price bands outline a broader roadmap for Bitcoin’s potential movements. The +0.5 band above the $96,000 average level is located near $118,000, marking the next potential resistance area during an extended rally. Then the +1.0 band, currently around $140,000, represents an area of extreme overvaluation. Historically, BTC tends to approach this level during euphoric market phases, often followed by a period of cooling or consolidation.
The downside is that the realized price band sits around $54,700, closely matching the $55,000 level mentioned earlier. Below that, the -1.0 band near $51,500 indicates a deeper undervalued area, usually associated with a capitulation event or late-stage bear market conditions. Together, these bands provide a structured view of BTC’s current positioning.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $78,011, up 13.01% over the past month. However, despite this rise, Bitcoin remains 38.19% off its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
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