Ethereum has rallied above $2,300, and bulls are currently targeting the $2,400 level, which is the upper bound of the recovery through a consolidation phase. Although price trends are improving, CryptoQuant’s analysis has identified changes in network data that suggest current price levels may be telling an incomplete story about Ethereum’s actual position.
This analysis looks at Ethereum’s active addresses, or the number of unique wallets that connect to the network each day. The 100-day moving average for this metric reached an all-time high of approximately 587,000 active addresses. This is not the highest price in several years. It’s not a cycle high. This is an all-time high, a level of sustained daily network engagement never seen before in Ethereum’s history.
This timing creates an unprecedented divergence according to the data. Ethereum price remains more than 50% below the all-time high reached in October. Network usage, as measured by the most persistent and smoothed version of the active address metric, is at a record. Never before had two people been so far apart heading in the same direction at the same time.
Historically, that gap has not lasted. According to CryptoQuant, there has always been a strong positive correlation between active address growth and Ethereum price, and the current deviation from that correlation is the most significant the data has ever recorded.
The network is growing. Prices haven’t caught up yet
The CryptoQuant report illustrates the distinctions that separate the current environment from the standard bear market narrative. In a typical economic downturn, falling prices and weak networks go hand in hand, resulting in fewer users, lower activity, and lower engagement. Ethereum’s active address data shows the opposite. The continued rise in the 100-day moving average toward all-time highs reflects strong underlying demand, growing adoption, and an ecosystem becoming more active during times when sentiment is at its most negative.
The behavioral pattern of real users continuing to use blockchain even when prices fall corresponds to on-chain companies expanding their customer base during recessions. The market may be pricing Ethereum as if the underlying demand is weakening. Network data shows pent-up demand is at record levels.
The implications of the underestimation follow directly from the historical relationships the report reveals. Asset prices tend to track the utility of the underlying network over time. When they diverge, that is, when utility rises while price falls, the gap has historically closed in favor of the utility signal rather than the price signal. Ethereum’s price is moving away from the network’s fundamentals, not the other way around.
The report describes this as a hidden bullish signal, hidden as it is only visible to participants looking below the price chart. The bearish mood surrounding Ethereum reflects the price trend. Active address records reflect what the network is actually doing. Over time, these two things have always converged. The question that arises in the current setup is not whether that will happen, but how long the gap will last before prices catch up to the levels already in use.
Ethereum regains support but faces overhead trend resistance
Ethereum has recovered from February’s sharp decline and stabilized around $2,320, but the broader structure remains mixed. The rebound from the sub-$1,800 level created a clear low, but the price is now directly within the resistance group defined by the 50-week moving average and the 100-week moving average. Although both indicators are trending sideways, they still act as dynamic ceilings, limiting upward momentum.
The 200-week moving average is currently trending higher below the price and continues to act as long-term structural support. The ability of ETH to sustain above this level during the correction confirms that the macro trend is not completely broken, despite continued medium-term weakness.
Price movements since March have shown a shift from impulsive selling to range-bound consolidation. The recovery leg has been orderly, with higher lows and controlled advances rather than aggressive expansion. However, the inability to regain the $2,600-$2,800 zone where the previous breakdown acceleration occurred suggests that supply will remain active during the rally.
The volume supports this interpretation. The surge in surrenders indicated forced liquidation, while the recovery phase saw a decline in participants, indicating cautious accumulation rather than strong conviction.
For the structure to become definitively bullish, Ethereum needs to regain its 100-week moving average and sustain above it. Until then, the market is in transition between recovery and continued risk.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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